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HomeMy WebLinkAboutR-77-0817RESOLUTION NO. 7 7- 8 1 7 A 11 ESOLUTION AUTHORIZING THE CITY MANAGER TO NEGOTIATE A CONTRACT WITH HAMMER, SILER, GEORGE ASSOCIATES AND WALLACE, McHARG, ROBERTS AND TODD FOR CONSULTING SERVICES FOR THE PRE- PARATION OF ECONOMIC ANALYSES OF THE CIVIC CENTER - SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT AREA: FURTHER PROVIDING THAT IN THE EVENT A SATISFACTORY AGREEMENT CAN- NOT BE NEGOTIATED WITH THE AFORESAID FIRM. THE CITY MANAGER IS AUTHORIZED TO NEGOTIATE A CONTRACT WITH ECONOMIC RESEARCH ASSOCIATES AND PLANTEC COR- PORATION IN THAT ORDER: FURTHER INSTRUC- TING THE CITY MANAGER TO SUBMIT THE FINAL NEGOTIATED CONTRACT TO THE CITY COMMISSION FOR ITS APPROVAL PRIOR TO EXECUTION IT,.RESOLVED BY THE COMMISSION OF THE CITY OF MIAMI, FLORIDA: Section 1. The City Manager is hereby authorized to negotiate a contract with Hammer, Siler, George Associates and Wallace McHarg, Roberts and Todd for consulting services, being the preparation of economic analyses of the Civic Center - Secondary Development Area. Section 2. In the event a satisfactory agreement cannot be negotiated with the aforesaid firm. the City Manager is hereby authorized to negotiate a contract with Economic Research Associates and Plantec Cor- poration in that order. Section 3. The City Manager is hereby instructed to submit the final negotiated contract to the City Commission for its approval prior to execution. ATTEST: %t A PH C, ONGIE, CITY CLERK PASSED AND ADOPTED THIS 13 DAY OF October Maurice A. Ferre PREPARED AND APPROVED BY: a/r.."C ROI3ERT F. CI.,ARK, ASS', CITY AT'IORNEY A EI) AS 'I 0 FO]; M, AND ORR ECTNESS: ]K:NOX, .JR. CITY f ORNEY MAYOR 1977. "DOCUMENT INDEX _ r+ ITEM NO. CITY COMMISSION MEETING OF OCT.31977 enamor( ti07 7 - 8 I Joseph tk: Orassie .., Selitetinbet 26, 197 City Mager N y j t it Richard L: Fosmoet1k Director Planning Department 44o: • Economic Consultant, Civic Center - 5econdary Developt~nent Area Pursuant to City Ordinance 86-60 dated July 28. 1971 Which appropriated S10,000 from the Second Year Community Block Grant and authorized the City Manager to enter into an agreement with Dade County, the Public Health Trust of Dade County and the University of Miiarni School of Medicine for the purpose of securing qualified consultant services in preparation for a grant application in connection with the Federal Urban Development Action Grant Program, a selection committee was established and the firms of Hammer, Siler, George Associates and Wallace, M1cHarg, Roberts and Todd (Co -venture) were selected. It is recommended that the attached resolution authorizing the City Manager to enter into a contractual greement with the beforetnentioned consulting firms be approved. The Study_ The City of Miami, Dade County, the Public Health Trust and the University of Miami School of Medicine are jointly funding a study of the problems and develop- ment opportunities for what is classified as the Secondary Development Area (SDA) of the Civic Center. This is the area not encumbered with public and institutional uses bounded by NW 17th Avenue on the west, NW 20th Street on the north. NW 7th Avenue and 1-95 on the east and the Miami River on the south. Within this one square mile area there has been extensive public and institutional expansion and redevelopment during the last. ten years. The proposed study will provide economic data for the preparation of a comprehen- sive development plan of the area, a detailed market analysis to determine types of ancillary facilities that are needed and can be supported, and the preparation of economic development packages for private and joint public -private de ;elopment projects which will be appropriate for Federal assistance under the proposed l'rban Development Action Grant IUDAG) Program of the U. S. Department of IJousine and Urban Development. (see attachment Al 1 Joseph R: Grassie Septetrnber 26, i997 The City Planning Department lias been selected as the lead agency in this sttidy and will be responsible for coordinating the efforts of all other participants and the preparation and monitoring of the contract with the economic consultant: Consultant Selection Process The consultant selection process was consistent with procedures of the Florida Consultant's Competitive Negotiation .Act of 1973. The selection committee included representatives from the respective fundiig agencies and the Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce. The committee included: Richard L. Fosmoen, Assistant City Manager. and Director of Planning Mel Adams. Director, Dade County Department of Housing and Urban Development Mr. Sergio Pereira. Coordinator, Dade County. Community Development Mr. Robert Burton, Administrator, Jackson Memorial Hospital Mr. Martin Fine, Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce Mrs. Jean l-3ellamey, Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce Dr. E. M. Papper, Vice President for Medical Affairs and Dean. School of Medicine, University of Miami 'did not. attend selection meetings) Advertisement for economic consulting services was placed in the "Miami Herald" and "Miami News" on July 31, 1977. "Miami Times" on !Lily 28, 1977 and "Diario Las Americas" on tuly 31, 1977. The following eighteen firms responded. 1. Real Estate Research Corporation 2. Hammer, Siler, George Associates and Wallace. Mcl-Iarg. Roberts and Todd 3. Reinhold P. Wolf Research Inc. 4. Laventhol and Tiorwath 5, M. T. Paladich and Associates. Inc. Soseph cjt,assie 8epteinbe r 26, 107 6. irst Research ". Plantec Corporation 8, Hemisphere Research Service Inc, Si* International Financial Services Limited 10. J. A. Avello and Associates 11. Harmon Garrin Associates 12. Strategy Research Corporation 13. Gladstone Associates 14. Economics Research Associates 15. Welpar Consulting (Manuel Parra) 16. Jose Sergio Chao 17. Charles E. Cawthra 18. Peat, Marwick, Mitchell The criteria established for evaluation included; relevant experience in similiar projects. ability of the firm to provide the requested scope of economic services, adequacy of personnel., familarity with the Miami area and experience in other public projects. (see attachment B) Based on these criteria the Selection Com- mittee evaluated eight firms as qualified to undertake this assignment. (see attach- ment C) The three most qualified firms were personally interviewed by the Selection Com- mittee on September 20, 1977 and were ranked in the following order. Hammer, Siler, George Associates. and Wallace, Mcllarg, Roberts and Todd (a joint venture) Economic Research Associates Plantec Corporation While all three firms interviewed by the Selection Committee have the expertise to undertake this project it was the consensus of the Committee that Hammer, Siler, George Associates and Wallace, McIlarg, Roberts and Todd were the most qualified due to their extensive national and local experience, the successful completion of similiar type studies, their national reputation and comprehensive study proposal submitted. see attachment D) Hammer, Siler, George Associates has completed directly comparable projects in the University Circle Medical Complex in Cleveland, the Cedar - Riverside project in Minneapolis - St. Paul, the Syracuse Milts project in Syracuse, New York and the Springfield Ilospitat Medical Center project in Springfield, Massachusetts. i Joseph P. Grassie Septettiber 26, 1()Vi They are currently preparing Urban Development Action Grant projects in the North Shore area of Central Pittsburgh and in the North Birmingham Commercial area. Locally they have completed numerous studies. including economic analysis for Omni International. financial analysis and development strategies for the South Beach Redevelopment Plan, concept plans for Interama, and numerous office and retail feasibility studies. Wallace, McHarg, Roberts and Todd has a local office and has extensive experience in Miami including; the Downtown Urban Development and Zoning Study, the Miami Comprehensive Neighborhood Plan, and are currently working on the Miami River Development Study. One of the primary objectives of this study will be the economic packaging of selected projects and the promotion of these projects for both public and private development. The national reputation of the selected consultants will greatly enhance the market- ability of these projects to potential private developers and expedite their implemen- tation. The final selection and ranking of economic consultants established by the Selection Committee should be given primary consideration in the action to be taken by the City Commission due to the fact that this study is only partially funded by the City and that the Selection Committee was composed of representatives of all the funding agencies. ATTACI-INIENT A nopsis of Program and Scope of Professional Services • • ME ME MEE MEM MEE • gyrop8ie of progrettt And Seope of Professional SerViceS ATTACUUM1 t A The proposed study of the Secondary Development Area of the Civic Center will provide economic data for the preparation of a compre- hensive development plan of the area, a detailed market analysis to determine types of ancillary facilities that are needed and can be supported, and the preparation of economic development packages for private and joint public -private development projects which will be appropriate for Federal assistance under the Urban Development Action Grant (UDAG) Program of the U.S. Department of HIousing and Urban Development. Elements of this program should include but not be limited to the following: 1. Review of all relevant studies and plans for the Civic Center area. 2. Analysis of existing land values and economic trends in the area. . Preparation of a market analysis for types of ancillary facilities that can be supported by the Civic Center and the magnitude of their demand. Elements of this analysis should include housing, retail, office, entertainment and other commercial uses that would be consistent with the overall development pattern of the area. Information for this analysis should be derived from, but not limited to, surveys of institutional needs, employee and visitors questionnaires, other relevant studies. Selection and analysis with the assistance of the Planning staff of potential redevelopment sites and the establishment of redevelopment programs for selected sites based on the following factors: market and physical considerations, impact on existing land uses, linkages with surrounding activity areas► accessibility by different means of trans- portation, environmental impact, cost estimates, etc. S. Preparation of a financial analysis and investment package for selected projects. Elements of this analysis should include, but not be limited to: development costs, revenue potentials, operating costs► and financing mechanisms. 6. Preparation of economic data and analysis necessary for the completion of the Urban Development Action Grant appli- cation to the Federal government, including an analysis of the unique factors of distress confronting the Miami economy. 7. preparation of economic projections on the future development of the Civic Center Area and its impact on the surrounding area and the City of Miami. 8. Analysis of the existing and projected financial impact of Medical Center Complex on the local economy. - - r-- ECONOMIC CONSULTANT SELECTION CRITERIA CIVIC CENTER - SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT AREA Selection Committee Member Date CRITERION RATING A. Capability of Firm 1O% -- Firm represents complete area of services, market analysis, real estate analysis, fiscal analysis, economic protections, economic forecasting, reuse studies, survey techniques B. Adequa^v of Personnel -- Su;{icient and competent personnel to undertake and accomplish assign- ment expeditiously Professional qualifications and ex- perience of personnel directly assigned to study Minority representation/affirmative action C. Past Record and Experience -- Undertaken similar type studies Undertaken projects in central city areas Previously completed projects for local public agencies Familiarity with UDAG and federal Programs D. Implementation of Studies -- Firm has successful experience in identifying realistic private/public redevelopment programs Has had similar studies implemented as recommended by consultant 10% 20% E.R.A. 11111111111 Hammer/Siler/ George/TA'MRT i 1 III 11111111111 ATTACHMENT B Page 1 of 2 Plantee CRITERION E. Familiarity with Miami Area Conducted studies in South Florida Personnel have practiced in South Florida lair or branch office in Dade County F. Evaluation of Proposal Proposal entailslull array of services requested Additional services that will be provided Proposal provides an in-depth analysis of economic factors Proposed methodology will provide sufficient data and meet study objectives Methodology encompasses innovative techniques G. Interview Quality of presentation 4•Ir Ability to communicate verbally and present information in a succinct manner TOTAL RATING 1111111111 Iu 1111111111 hill Page 2 of 2 11111111111111111111111 RATING 5% 10% 100% 1111111111111111111 CIVIC CENTER - SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT AREA ECONOMIC CONSULTANT QUALIFICATION SU;tilN1ARY QUALIFIED MOST QUALIFIED Comments Consultant Plantec Corporation Gladstone Associates Hammer, Siler, George Associates and dti MRT Real Estate Research Corp. First Research & Wilbur Smith Economic Research Associates Asa Well qualified staff with Strategy Research extensive experience in Corporation market studies and urban revitalization programs. Both planning and econom- ic expertise. Extensive relevant and local experience in market analy- ses and financial evalua- tion studies. Broad experience in central city studies, UDAG, revitali- zation program, develop- ment strategies and eco- nomic packaging. itirFT has extensive local exper- ience and familiarity with the area. Nationally have completed numerous multi -use studies for central city redevelop- ment areas. Well qualified local staff. Experience in market research and economic feasibility studies. Extensive experience in similar type projects and with local market condi- tions. Reinhold Wolff Comments Emphasis in market analy- sis and feasibility studies, lacks background in eco- nomic packaging and central area market analyses. Expertise in areas of hous- ing and market feasibility studies, limited experience in economic packaging. i 1111 11111111 1111111111111 111 1 111111111111111111 I7act?�::�z C LEAST QUALIFIED, Consultant Harmon Garrin Assoc. Charles Cawthra Hemisphere Research Services Inc. Jose Sergio Chao International Financial Services Limited J. A. Avello 3: Assoc. Laventhol & Horwath welpar Consulting - Manuel Parra Comments Experience in property agr praisal. Experience in property ap- praisal. Limited experience, firm currently inactive. Experience in Latin. America: - general economic research. Insufficient data provided._ M. J. Badalich, & Assoc. Peat, Marwick, Mitchell 3: Co. Insufficient information provided. Area of emphasis of the Miami office has been in the area of hotel and leisure services. Limited experience. Previous experience market analyses for financial insti- tutions. Submitted information- after deadline. ATTACHMENT ID Excerpts - Study Proposal 1) Hammer, Siler. George Associates and Wallace, McHarg, Roberts and Todd 2) Economic Research Associates 3) Plantec Corporation Or' AITACIIMENT D TUDY PROPOSAL AND MTIIODOLOGY 1 3 3 mAilit111.$1t1111.11111111i1 li0111091A13e ■ Part A, STUDY PROPOSAL AND METHODOLOGY The stated purpose of the study of the Secondary Development Area of the Civic Center is to provide economic data for the preparation of a comprehensive development plan for the area, a detailed market analysis to determine the kinds of ancillary facilities that are needed and can be supported, and the preparation of economic development packages for private and joint public -private development projects which will be ap- propriate for federal assistance under the Urban Development Action Grant Program of the U.S. Department of (lousing and Urban Development. In your synopsis of the program and scope you have laid out a logical set of elements to achieve this purpose and there would seem to be no rea- son to deviate from these elements. In the following paragraphs we will describe the methodology to be utilized for each task and the work that will be required in light of the unique character of the area and the re- lated research and planning work which has been completed in the area in the recent past. Element 1. Review of Relevant Studies and Plans The proposed work program will be an ambitious undertaking in light of the funds available and it is essential that maximum use be made of previously complctcd research and planning materials. We would expect that the Planning Department staff would have in their bibliographic materials and in their files copies of the most relevant documents and, in addition, could provide counsel as to the public policy response to the research conclusions and recommendations included therein. NT1RT, because of their very substantial recent work in the area, also has NAMMI111.I1IIP,I11011111 A00001AiiI 1 1 1 A 1 A a a a a • 1• such an annotated bibliography And copies of many of the pt rtin 'itt h'pi%t't <, The market and economic work completed as a part of the Comprehensive Neighborhood Development Plan, the Government Center study, the rapid transit alternatives analysis, the studies completed by the individual hospitals in the arca and previous work by the Planning Department staff would be included within this previous work to be reviewed. Based upon the collection and evaluation of existing studies and other available data, a detailed work program would be developed and reviewed with the agency which would program in detail the additional data which would be required and the work which would be required to collect, analyze and synthesize the data into the required outputs from this contract. Element 2. Analysis of Existing Land Values and Economic Trends in the Area The Civic Center area is a study in concentration and contrast. The medical and governmental functions arc developed at high -density and in high structures located adjacent to downtown. Surrounding this concentration is the very sharply contrasting low -density residential area with its dominantly Spanish-speaking and to a lesser extent black population, older structures and general need of repair. The economic trends for the arca reflect these differences with sub- stantial growth in employment in the hospital and county complex and with even more rapid growth in employee incomes while the average income of the surrounding population drops. Land values in the arca surrounding the hospital/county complex re- flect not what is there but what might he and these high land value ex- pectations can be a major impediment to realization of market potentials. The IISGA/WHRT consultant team has on hand, because of previous work in the area, a substantial amount of data available on the extent, characteristics, past and future growth of the employment base in the -2- NAMM10.011.111.0/01101 A011001A1011 CiVic Center area. Data is also available on the visitor groins tb h letter eXtent and on the surrounding neighborhoods. In this task, present economic and land value levels in the area would be established, past trends analyzed and reasonable projections developed of future basic (hospital and government) employment, visitation and other activity levels. These forecasts would rely heavily on in-depth interviews with administrators and policy -makers of these major institutions os a basis for refining a simple correlation of past growth in these institutions with growth in the regional population and employment base which they serve. The output of this work would be working projections of future levels of basic employment and visitation in the Civic Center area required for the development of market projections for various ancillary uses to be accomplished in Element 3. Element 3. Market Analysis for Ancillary Uses Inc present levels of well over 30,000 employees and 30,000 visitors per day generate substantial potentials for a broad range of ancillary uses and future growth in these activities will further increase oppor- tunities. In addition, the coming; of rapid transit service to the area and the surrounding neighborhood population represent substantial oppor- tunities. Our experience indicates that lagging private investment is affected by many factors including land assembly problems, excessive land price expectations and lack of public infrastructure investment, but also by the absence of hard documentation of the existence of the market potential. An excellent tool to utilize in documenting market potential is the direct potential user interview and we would propose to use these exten- sively in the Civic Center market studies. 1 it is our understanding that the planning Department may have available personnel for carrying out the survey. The consultant role would be to draw the sample, design the questionnaire, design the tabulation format, train the survey personnel and analyze the survey results in terms of the market potential implications, Survey manpower resources may limit the range of surveys possible. Ideally the following potential market groups would be surveyed. Hospital and Governmental Employees. This survey form would be dis- tributed and collected by the respective employers (perhaps at payroll time). Its prime purpose would be to determine the economic and demographic charac- teristics of the employees at the various employment locations, determine the amount they now spend for various types of goods while at thcir place of work, where they spend this money and what kinds of commercial and commercial -recreation facilities they feel are missing from the area. In addition, a major purpose of the Civic Center planning and packaging effort must he the attraction of a substantial number of the Civic Center employees now residing in the suburbs to move into the area. The survey form should test their general propensity to move in and identify amenity and environmental features of housing development which would attract them into the arca. Doctors and Medical Specialists. In addition to their role as potential employee consumers, this group is a potential generator of demand for office space to support their hospital -related private medical practices. They also often have interest in participating in the development of office space and other parts of the ancillary use package as investors. Our ex- perience in the Springfield Hospital Medical Center and University Circle projects gives evidence that initial doctor interest in office space occupancy and/or investment participation can be stimulated and identified through such a questionnaire. -4- A A MAMNlI.,11l11.111O11Si AOOOO1A,ts 1 i Visitors, The visitor group can be broadly defined as including both the out -patient and in -patient medical group, the relatives of these groups, citizens dealing with the county and the full range of businessmen and others who have occasion to be in the Civic Center area. Data solicited from this group would include thci r household characteristics, expenditure patterns while in the Civic Center arca, constraints on their expenditures because of absence of facilities, their actual and desired duration of stay. For that part of the visitor group, which because of the treatment program of themselves or their relatives, have need to stay in the arca for a few days or a few weeks, the survey should also explore potential occupancy of motel and apartment -hotel facilities. The data generated by the survey should provide a clear picture of the support now generated for various ancillary uses by the various parts of the visitor/employee group and the part of this potential presently going unserved. In addition, for each use analyzed, retail, office, commercial, recreation and other entertainment, transient housing, permanent housing and others as appropriate, present competitive facilities serving part or all of the market would be inventoried and analyzed. This work would determine the competitive quality of present facilities. It would also allow comparison data on employee indication of local business use with the business experience itself. This would be a useful cross-check. Three other sources of basic data are important to the market deter- mination. First, the administrators of the major institutions themselves should be surveyed to determine their total ancillary use needs and the part of those needs going unmet in the area. These inputs would be de- rit,'d from in-depth interviews. Three other sources of base data are important to the market deter- mihatioh. First, the administrators of the major institutions themselves should be surveyed to determine their total ancillary use needs and the part of those needs going unmet in the area. These inputs would he derived from in-depth interviews. Second, the needs of residents of the adjoining neighborhoods and the extent that these needs are being met should be determined either through house -to -house survey or through symptomatic interviews with a representa- tive neighborhood leadership group. The ethnic character of much of this population and its impact on shopping patterns must be carefully considered. Third is the potential to attract the general downtown market to the Civic Center arca to provide important supplemental support to uses deriving their basic support from the Civic Center community. Entertainment, specialty retail, restaurants, commercial, recreation and housing are ex - While such siphoning -off of downtown dollars could be considered counter -productive from a public policy standpoint, the potential created by and for it should be understood. The above -describes] data and analysis would be synthesized into a set of general market potentials for the Civic Center arca for each basic type of private land use. For commercial uses, unit expenditure potentials would be developed based upon the results of the survey verified by the experience of the merchants and standard expenditure data. These unit expenditure figures would be combined with estimates of total number of employees and visitors in the planning years (1980 and 1985) and an estimate of total expenditure potentials derived. Judgments would then be made as to the share of this expenditure potential which could be captured at new facilities were they developed in the Civic Center area. These sales potentials would be translated into physical facility needs -6- H A M M E A. t 1 E S 11• S I 0 A 11E ASSOCIATES AT 1 1 a 1 1 1 based upon estimated sales for square -foot rcquiteaents. Parking service and other facility requirements would similarly be estimated based upon the sales activity expected. A similar methodology would be used for other private real estate uses. The unit employee and visitor propensity to support theesfacilities would be determined based upon the surveys. These would be combined with projected total visitors, employees and, if appropriate, present residents to estimate the total market. The existing al and potential future competition would be analyzed and the share of ich could be captured by new development in the Civic Center area determined. This demand would t' n he translated into physical facility requirements based upon required productivity standards. In addition, the institutional interviews may reveal related quasi - institutional uses which require consideration. In the University Circle project such a facility was a continuing education center for doctors and other medical personnel. The identification of such a use can be an important keystone to invigorated private investment in the Civic Center arca. Element 4 Potential Redevelopment Sites The process of site selection is a blending, of market potential and real estate reality. The first step in the process involves the determina- tion by the economic consultant of those locations and specific sites within the Civic Center arca which have the greatest market potential for each basic type of use. A site priority list would he developed for each use. Second, these sites must be investigated for availability. In some cases the properties arc in the ownership and/or the expansion plans of -7- MAM1110.s11111.01011111 0100001Ai1 one of more of the institutions in the area. In other cases there may be disparate owners with disparate plans within a single potential assemblage. In still others the owner may, for personal reasons, wish not to sell or may have set an asking price which is substantially above the reasonable income -generated value of the property. Although eminent domain can substantially aid the redevelopment process, the use of this technique is politically difficult and almost always results in a price to the owner substantially in excess of the real market value of the property, thus requiring a level of subsidy which makes the project more difficult. Working with WMR'1' and the Planning Department staff, 11SGA would select from among the sites with the highest market potential those which have the strongest potential for early stage packaging success while having the most positive impact on the longer -term revitalization of the arca as well. This blending of market strength with land availability and immed- iate impact or "results" with insuring the longer -term optimum development of the entire arca is a difficult task but one which can be accomplished through a close working relationship between the Planning Department staff, the planning and design consultant and 11SGA. The substantial impact and somewhat uncertain timing (based upon national experience) of the transit stop opening further complicates this process. As we have learned in our present assig►ment for UMTA packaging, investment projects around transit stops (including the medical center arca) anticipating lead time on transit construction is a major obstacle to obtaining firm private developer commitment. Staged development of these stops is almost essential in order to place investor risk within the acceptable range. Specific use development programs would be established for each of` the high potential development sites. These programs would include type of use, facilities required to accommodate and support each use, probable timing of market absorption for each use and relative probability of success. Element 5. Financial Analysis and Investment Packages Experience in University Circle, Cedar -Riverside and other similar hospital -related packaging cfforts suggests that a wide range of project potentials will emerge. These will likely include: middle- and moderate - income housing primarily for medical staff and other employees in the area, hotel and apartment -hotel facilities rclatcd to out -patient and patient relative needs, doctor -related office space, medical support facilities such as pharmacies, medical and surgical supplies, rehabilita- tion equipment and services and others emerging from the studies. A basic choice to be made in the packaging activity is whether one or two central developers will he sought to carry out the ancillary use development or whether the public policy rather will be to create a number of packages of smaller size and focusing on a more specialized use mix and thus allow Lioader participation in the development process. Another basic question relates to the role, if any, that the insti- tutions in the Civic Center arca wish to play in the development of ancillary uses either as a source of income or as a method for in- suring that the resulting development will hest meet their needs. A similar question relates to surrounding neighborhood residents and property owners and the role which they and the city fool is optimum for them to play in the process. NAMMI1.1!'11Pti0101101-A11001AT10 Yet another important issue relates to finlancing. You have emphrt- sued the federal Urban Demonstration Action Grant program as a primary tool for this project.. Based upon our work in the North Shore project we would agree that if land can he quickly made avai lable that this Civic Center project has the potential for immediate economic development results while providing an income mix of housing assistance which DUD seeks to achieve through this program. We would expect, however, that other financing mechanisms would also be considered. These would include: thc active role that EDA is playing in inner city development projects, potential use of CD funds, the housing bond program, parking authority bonds, the direct financial participation of the institutions and perhaps the individual physicians in the arca. All of these techniques should be thought of as only catalytic to bringing private investment into the effort. Such private capital is es- sential to carry out the project and firm commitments of private and in- stitutional participation arc as you know a major prerequisite for UDAG funding. These considerations would be important to the selection of the areas for packaging and tlic nature of thc development package assembled. Clearly, substantial discussions and negotiations with the prospective project development participants would be essential to shaping the pack- ages. The components of the packages would vary with the selected nature and development approach but in all cases would include development costs, revenue potentials, operating costs and financing mechanisms and strategies. They would be presented in tabular and textual form which could serve as the basis for a prospectus. -10- M#MM1••4t41•.l110••1 •••••1U'1• Element G: Urban Development Action Grant Application With growth in South Florida, tourism leveling off somewhat and with the construction industry still with extremely high unemployment, Miami can certainly make a strong case to HUD and to other federal agencies such as EDA that the Miami area qualifies for UDAG and other assistance. At this writing, final UDAG application regulations arc not finalized but the July draft with which we have been working in the Pittsburgh project sets general guidelines for both the eligibility of the city and the consideration of a specific project proposal. Since we are sure that you have this draft or perhaps an even more recent version, we will not quote it chapter and verse but rather select out those items which this study might address. First, with respect to city eligibility: "Age of housing", "condition of housing", "abandonment" as reflected' in property tax delinquency would, we a:.sume, be readily available to city: staff and would not require consultant effort. "Per capita income", "population out -migration" and "tax base", "unemployment", "job loss" and "percentage of poverty" are items where consultant interpretation, comparison and analysis could well strengthen the city's case. A particular focus of the consultant work in the city's eligibility area wi11 be preparing a current reading on these established economic indicators rather than relying on the more convenient dated data called for in the regs which fails to reflect the recent serious problems in South Florida. -11- 1411YM111,111.1I 1110/01 *s000111111 MEIMIRE %lit examitle of the July IIUD-UDAG draft calls for the measurement of "Job Loss" through utilization of the 1963-72 job change in manufacturing and retail employment. The distress in South Florida on the other hand is much more clearly represented in changes in construction and tourism employment from 1972 to the present. The same chronological and defini- tional problems are inherent in the other economic indicators established by IIUD. The consultant role in application preparation will be two -fold. First, to prepare the economic profile of distress for Miami in the most convincing terms, and second, to work with HUD-UDAG staff (we understand present plans are to evaluate city eligibility at the regional office level) to convince them that more recent data is a more accurate measure even though standard data sources may be more difficult to come by. The second role of this study in the UDAG application process focuses on the project submittal itself. First, the project must be established as consistent with the city's overall community development plan and housing assistance plan and possibly the overall economic development requirements and we would assume that this can be efficiently done by Planning Department staff. Second, the project must be described in detail as it "must take private investment, stimulate solve critical problems re - stagnating or declining tax advantage of unique opportunities to attract restoration of the existing housing stock or sulting from the population out -migration or base." Here we believe that the consultant working draft a valid and convincing response. with the staff can A description of the proposed activities includes estimated costs and evidence of the commitment of required public and private resources. -12- NAMMOm.•111m.0/011Ii wis•01a111 i i a a This evidence must be ih t1,e fort of contracts of lcttcts of intent, Here the consultant would work with the city in obtaihing these commit= meats. A project budget and timetable are also required and these would again be prepared jointly by the consultant and the Planning Department, working closely with the institutions and individuals who are proposing to carry out the development. These provisions are those within the application regulations which require economic input and for which HSGA would make substantial input, Element 7. Future Civic Center Development and Impact The prime purpose of this task as we interpret it is to project the total public and private investment which will occur in the Civic Center area over the years due to the implementation of the UDAG and other early stage actions and the longer -term growth in the institutions in the area. This will be done based upon the market analysis and economic pack- aging analysis carried out in previous tasks, consideration of the city's longer -term community development funding strategies, the longer -term plans of the major institutions in the arca and other factors. This development will have substantial benefit to the adjoining down- town and the city as a whole in terms of retail sales increases, stimulation of a greater convention activity and thus hotel occupancy, the overall image of the area from an industrial development standpoint and other factors which will be identified and documented by the con- sultant under this clement of the work. -13- MAMMta.0141a.010110,; *11001a11$ Element 8. Financial trnj,act of Area Development The city's decision to give priority to this project must consider the overall "leverage" which the project will have on the local economy and fiscal structure. In this task, we would translate the development projected into measures of economic benefit including but not limited to: 1. Increased employment.. 2. Increased real estate, sales and other tax revenues. 3. Increased sales and occupancy revenues in local businesses, 4. Impact on transit ridership. 5. Utilization of presently unused facility capacity. 6. Other factors as appropriate. The resultS of the task would be presented in a manner to make it persuasive to local state and federal decision -makers. HAM Mill.111k1 P11 0111111 ASIVOIATIS t i I ATTACHMENT I) Corporation Subsidiary of Reynolds, Smith and Hills September 15, 1977 Mr. Richard L. Fosmoen, AIP Director of Planning City of Miami Miami, Florida 33133 Dear Mr. Fosmoen: We are pleased to provide this proposal to perform the Economic Analysis of the Civic Center - Secondary Development Area Study. PLANTEC and the corporate family of Reynolds, Smith and Hills, Architects -Engineers -Planners, Inc., are uniquely qualified as a TEAM to provide this service to the City of Miami for the following reasons: o The project staff selected to undertake the work elements of this study include our senior staff members in the areas of market research, finan- cial feasibility analysis, and state/federal financing assistance programs. o We provide unique capabilities among economic and planning con- sultants. That is, we have extensive experience in providing inno- vative implementation services which go far beyond the traditional economic/feasibility analyses. These include: • Project financing through a PLANTEC subsidiary, First Municipal Leasing Corporation -Southeast, for 'municipal projects ▪ Real estate development • Real estate company management; joint venture management Investment packaging Short- and long-term financing negotiations Real estate brokerage/sales through Plantec Realty Central city revitalization o PLAN TEC's parent, Reynolds, Smith and Hills, has been providing professional services in Florida since the early 1940's, and now has offices in ten (10) Florida cities, Atlanta, and Washington, D. C. TEAM has over 450 employees in a wide variety of disciplines, including architects, engineers, hospital specialists, and comprehensive planners. RSH is favored consultant for Federated Department Stores (Burdine's) for mall design and planning, and has designed many award -winning co•nmercial and hospital structures. 5255 N.W. 87th. Avenue, Suite 200 • Miami, Florida 33178 • 305/592 -1042 Mrs Rlehdrd Posmoen September 15, 1977 o Market/feasibility analysis, design, and master planning for a variety of Medical facilities by TEAM associates provide a clear understanding of the relationships that exist among ancillary land uses. Specific experi corny includes medical office buildings, medical arts centers, staff housing, mercial space adjacent to hospital facilities, and supply facilities. o TEAM professionals have completed over 40 central city commercial re- vitalization/reuse studies, many of which have been conducted in both Black and Hispanic neighborhoods working with small businesses, muni- cipal/federal agencies, merchants and citizen groups, and local financial institutions. o TEAM has acted as consultant for federal,numerous stateclients and municipal granting preparation of applications for HUD and other agencies. Detailed development cost estimating includes soft, hard, and operating costs for all major development types with an in-house cost estimating department of five persons. o TEAM has extensive experience in evaluating the development of multi -use projects within the secondary development area dominated by significant new investment. This includes analysis within the tourist/convention, retail, housing, entertainment, and office sectors. Our proposed study design has been significantly structured to provide the City of Miami Planning Department, Civic Center, Medical Complex, area businesses, and residents with an IMPLEMENTATION ACTION PROGRAM. Our experience in implementing this investment packaging approach assures that meaningful documents will result from our combined efforts. Sincerely, Pio Lui Own Robert Klein Vice President /aa • i 1 I i i 1 i i 1 DESCRIPTION OP WORK ELEMENTS The initial phase (Task I) of the study relates to the definition of the study Cited, the gathering of available published data, and the identification of the Sources of additional information necessary to complete the study. The data is then evaluated with respect to format, completeness and accuracy in order to eS" tablish existing baselines from the study area. This is followed by an analysis of additional data needs (Task II). That is, specific data inputs which need to be verified, updated and expanded are identified. At the sarne time,the data genera- tion procedures, methodologies and responsibilities are established in order to assure timely acquisition of information. The data collection stage (Task III) requires field work, interviews, question- naire design and surveys. The information generated from this process Fills voids regarding existing conditions and provides a data base in a format for inclusion in the muiket feasibility, development planning and implementation phases. The Market Feasibility Analysis (Task IV) identifies those potential projects which are supportable by local, regional, national and international demand. Data included in this analysis include those generated above plus published economic/ demographic forecasts and inventories of existing project performance within the Civic Center and in competitive market areas. The supply/demand equation is evaluated for the whole range of development types initially, with emphasis in- creasingly being placed upon refining the emphasis to those land use types which are identified as being supportable. • =MI IMES 1' °rti+ ttcictI feasibility testing (Task V) complements the market analysis process by identifying (Filtering out) those land use types which are not economically sup pattable. That is, while the need for various facilities could be great, the exist- ing cost for development/operations might preclude them at this time or without an innovative approach for providing the facility. That is, moderate priced housing might only become feasible when combined with commercial/office space on the lower levels -- a configuration supported in certain urban markets. Rigorous financial feasibility analysis is applied to those projects which have tharket support at acceptable rental/sales rates. MI relevant variables affecting development are estimated including alternative financing mechanisms, ownership Forms and public assistance. Together the market/financial feasibility output pro- vides the basis for creating investment packages, economic value and interest in existing and future development. The data and analyses are summarized and presented in the form of Executive Summaries (Task VI) which are presented to those involved on behalf of the City of Miami. Agency and Board Review (Task VII) sessions are conducted in order to define the Development Plan. Market/feasibility data, the master plan, transport- ation :,-stem,Iinkages, available sites and all other impacting variables deemed sig- nificant are discussed and evaluated. Investment Packaging (Task VIII) refers to creating the documents which define the character of those projects which have been identified as supportable. That is, these projects are economically feasible and have the support of the City, Civic Center, hospitals, businessmen and citizens. The documents provide area/site/, Pt OWlee information demonstrating opportunity for invgstors, tenders and developers. it is this document which is presented to generate interest in specific projects since it demonstrates market feasibility, economic feasibility, community support and ultimately, value. The project is designed to encourage maximum interaction between the plan- ning staff and TEAM. Specific tasks will be the primary responsibility of the plan ning staff, others performed jointly with regular review procedures and authoriza- tions established. Finally, formal review are programmed to include agency/board participation at critical stages of the study. The detailed Scope of Services follows. I I= I . 1 M 1 1 I 1 ' 1 1 i 1 1 , ... 1 1 71 1 REVIEW DATA/PLANS WEEKS....do. 1 TASKS VII 1 it ANALYSIS OF DATA NEEDS QUESTIONNAIRE MARKET FEASIBILITY F MISSINO DMA COLLECTIO;-! angassimmigis monsmaminis ammaiimis AGENCY REVIEW 2 3 BOARD REVIEW 4 5 6 7 MARKET & Fl NANC INVESTMENT PACKAGE GRAPHICS PUBLIC FINANCING PROGRAt.. 16 17 18 IMPLEMENT • t . • • • PROGRAM Iv WORK/ANALYSIS 8 FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS VI II v FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS REVIEW r VI VII PUBLIC FINANCIAL INCENTIVES___ EXECUTIVE SUMMARIES OF FEASIBLE PROJECTS 11 INVESTMENT PACKAGING PRIVATE FINANCING PROGRAMS 12 15 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 N PACKAGING 110111111111 - CITY PLANNING DEPT. PLANTEC r STUDY PROPOSAL AND METHODOLOGY ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE CIVIC CENTER SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT AREA P€ OF SERVICES This proposed scope of services is designed to specifically fulfill the economic/ market and financial feasibility analysis, comprehensive development plan, and in- vestment packaging needs of the City of Miami with regard to efforts For redevelop- ment and revitalization of the Civic Center -Medical Complex area. The proposed study approach has been structured to indicate specific analyses and methodologies which will be utilized, and to reflect a logical time sequence and work flow. Major work elements are categorically summarized below: (See WORK PROGRAM) I. Review and evaluation of existing data base and plans II. Analysis of data needs lll; Data collection and surveys Market feasibility analysis Financial feasibility analysis I. Executive Summary - data presentation VII. Agency/Board review and development planning VIII. Investment packaging Work tasks and methodologies for each of these major work elements ate pre- sented in detail on the following pages. As proposed, work elements I - V will pro- vide a realistic market framework which is financially feasible, while work elements VI -VIII will involve the translation of economic data into a comprehensive develop- ment plan and redevelopment strategy to be used in implementing targeted p►ojects. 4 _ iy�IieW and Evaluation of Existing Data and Plans A review of all recent existing relevant base data which have been cathpiled for the study area would be evaluated with the assistance of the planning agency and other appropriate ,ounces for validity in terms of base information for the proposed study. The usefulness of this available data would then be expanded where required for analytical purposes. This work would be accomplished in the following manner: A series of interviews would be conducted, to determine the availability and extent of base data. Various City agencies and officials, planning staff members, hospital administrators, local realtors, and other appropriate sources identified by PLANTEC and the City Planning Department would be contacted. A series of working sessions would be held with planning staff members to evaluate the appropriateness of all collected data and to establish the existing data base from available information and other in-house resources. II. Analysis of Data Needs As a result of the working sessions and initial data collection efforts, an analysis of required data needs would be undertaken in order to more precisely define, and where appropriate, identify specific tasks for the remaining study programs. Work tasks in this phase of the study would focus upon the following: Define additional base data required to undertake the proposed study program which are not presently available or in an appropriate 5 forroaf fot utidtioli. Cotiduttd eries of meetings and interviews with representatives of the major activity generators, including medical administra,- tors, transportation officials, commercial business executives, lenders, and other appropriate identified resource groups. These interviews and meetings would provide a framework for deter mining the most efficient and effective way of obtaining the required data including the use of employee surveys where appro.- priate, local in-house employee data, and other information gathering techniques. Data Collection and Surveys In this work element, the collection of all additional required data would be undertaken by staff personnel from both in-house and field research. Included would be the design of the various survey methodology, the question- naires, and supervision of the implementation of the survey. PLANTEC will re- duce and analyze the survey data which will be instrumental in defining market parameters. Specific work tasks would focus upon the following: Field work and data collection by PLANTEC personnel in order to inventory, interview, and question knowledgeable officials to obtain a base of original data specifically oriented toward the various supportive markets, institutional and governmen:al needs as well as specified community goals. Design and evaluation of each questionnaire type to be Uti lited by each market segment or institution and supervision of survey administration. Generally, these surveys can be broadly classified into the following categories: facility utilization surveys heeds surveys consumer surveys These data will provide information regarding support far dIlernotive project types, institutional and community needs. IVY ::Market Feasibility Analysis The market feasibility analysis would utilize the relevant existing data deemed valid, the original data generated from field interviews and surveys and secondary data. This information would be input into economic models to establish ma ket feasibility. This 'tic, k element ,,iII define the e.tte t r.,dr- ket support a,ailable to the study area in term:. ,i supportable space by activity type, number of units or square feet, and estimated sales potentials for com- mercial/retail space. Market feasibility would be determined for housing, retail, office, wholesaling/warehousing, and all other- commercial activities identified in work elements I - IV which would be compatible with the study area's overall development character. The following work tasks would be completed in this phase of the study: An identification of each segment of the overall existing and possible future markets would be made and dimensioned in terms of their support. i i i i . Art r.tittiljsis of the existing residential comrnercidl facilities in ihtt study oleo would he undertaken to determine the extent to which the existing residential/commercial framework it effectively serving the identified existing and future rtiatket Segments. An evaluation of the competitive framework and the effective nest of facilities which would compere with those existing and proposed for the study area would be completed. Forecasts of the market support for each of the identified land uses would be developed based upon key variables for specific points in time. These variables include population, households, incomes, and expenditure potentials for various types of consumer goods, services, attr-actions, and other identifiable activities. Special attention will be given to quantifying residential and commercial opportunities identified in the facility needs surveys related to the medical/civic center facilities as well as any other major traffic generators identified in the course of our work. Sur- vey distribution and collection will be centralized through the planning staff and major employers in the area. This would include, but not be limited to, the fol lowing faci li ties: o medical.'dental office and related supporting space medical supplies and retail uses transient lodging 8 a ambulatory out -patient services • tweeting, convention, and training Facilitiet mixed income rental housing multi -family sales housing mass transit station impact areas entertainment activities If is anticipated that this phase of the analysis will 6e sttuctuied tO pro - three levels of potential project interest. These are: Direct Support Projects: Projects identified as responding to the direct needs of the established medical and governmental complexes. Secondary Support Projects: Projects identified as responsive to compatible support services For the primary projects, such as offices, apartments, retail. Tertiary Projects: Independent but land -use compatible projects which have a potential to foster improvements. The end result of this phase is the development of acceptable projects for financial analysis. In effect, the initial data review process and question- naires would have generated broad areas for investigation which the market research phase will have evaluated and reduced to the most logical and feasible projects. Financial Feasibility Analysis Financial testing of all recommended uses having sufficient thresholds of market support will be performed to evaluate financial variables which will impact upon development and implementation strategies. Recommended 1 1 1 1 1 7 A 1 7 1 project components, taking into account possible alternative financing Strategies that might be available under existing state and/or federal asSis.' Lance programs and non-profit entities, will be evaluated. Specifically, this analysis will provide pro forma operating statements and include the following work elements: Estimated development costs for recommended projects, on a dollar per square foot basis, will be determined by evaluation of comparable cost data for recent construction of a similar nature in the Miami area. Items to be included for evalua- tion are land values and acquisition costs, estimates of related project soft costs, and construction financing considerations. Estimates of the recommended project's revenues and operating costs will be detem.ined on the basis of existing and anticipated future market/operating conditions within the defined project area. Comparables for existing operations will be analyzed where available. Alternative financing considerations will be evaluated for each of the recommended projects with regard to requirements necessary to achieve financial feasibility. This may include state, federal, and other assistance programs such as tax increment financing, as well as land writedowns and other subsidies. While conducting the financial analyses, careful liaison will be main - dined with financial institutions and government agencies so that availability 0 Of funds and all logical funding mechanisms would b. evaluated. Team experience with state and federal agencies, with financial institutions and intermediaries, and with the insurance industry, recognizes the need for total involvement. VI, Executive Summaries - Data Presentation This work element will result in the synthesis of all reseach activities lending to the market and financial Feasibility and provide all supporting docu- mentation for Agency review. These materials will serve as the Framework for preparing the study area development plan and implementation of selected strategies. Included in this work element are the following: Preparation of an executive summary detailing conclusions and recommendations of thr: marker end financial feasibility analyses, including all backgrouna researcl-, data in tabular format. A series of work sessions with the City Planning Department and other appropriate groups and individuals to evaluate the execu- tive summaries and the conclusions and recommendations presented therein. Agency Review and Development Planning On the basis of the conclusions and recommendations presented in the Executive Summaries and work sessions, a final development program will be formulated in collaboration with the City Planning Deportment and other appro- priate groups. Development planning will include an analysis of the need for the following: MEW MEW Specific kind areas to be acquired and/or developed new building construction facilities to be rehabiliated or renovated public improvement programs pedestrian and vehicular traffic pattettis activity linkages Zt environmental impacts The resultant products from this work element include: • The preparation of a development plan for the study area detail- ing specific recommended action programs. • A determination of the economic impact resulting from the pro- posed development plan. Economic projections will be developed for selected points in time to assess the impact of planned develop- ment upon the City of Miami and the local economy. The impact of medical related facilities will be isolated and measured indepen- dently in order to assess the medical complex's direct impact. Each area will be discussed and the development impacts defined for the members Agency. Based upon agreement to proceed with identified projects acceptable to the Agency, the Investment Packaging Program phase is initiated. VIII. Investment Packaging The investment packaging phase is the culmination of the market and financial analysis efforts. Packaging is the ultimate determination of the capa- bility to offer the Civic Center area as a viable, full service activity sector. 12 of the 1 a a Success or failure with this part of the program ultimately reflects on the results of the total effort. It is, therefore, the critical element. There will be two approaches taken to compile the investment package, One is oriented toward grant applications For public Funds; the other is directed toward private funding. Grant Applications. Based upon the executive summary and agency review, those projects identified as requiring grant funding will be pursued. Specific support and approval must be given by the City agency. All criteria related to the individual grant program will be satisfied, although the agency must recognize its obligation to maintain interest in these projects on a continuing basis. Investment Packages. Investrrrent packages for distribution to in- terested financial institutions and developers will be prepared. Layout and formats will be prepared by the TEAM and i t is expected that graphics showing possible hui Idi ng portraits wi II be provided by Agency personnel. These packages will include the following for selected projects: o project viability area description,linkages market summary financial pro forma avai lable i ncentives 13 OMM WAC— fig these packages, coupled with the local support, are anticipated to be presented in a format which would ignite both developer and lender invest.. ttieht interest in the Civic Center area for feasible projects. These documents should be viewed as instruments which will create value in the Civic Center area by identifying the need, support and viability of specific investment apportuni ties. The project TEAM is confident that the methodology described above and depicted in the enclosed work plan is the most logical approach to Follow. The program has been successfully implemented by TEAM on other projects described further herein. In addition, because of our Total Service Capability (Architectural, Engineering, Planning, market research, financial services, financing, construction management, sales, leasing and joint venture manage- ment), our professional TEAM includes all the elements necessary for success. f Economics Research Associates lot Myths • pctssn • Ortsndo • Chicago • Sin FnncHco • Win • Salton ATTACHMENT D Suite 838 CNA Tower 255 South Orange Avenue Orlando, Florida 32801 (305) 841-4220 Septetnbet 15 i 1977 Mt. Matthew Schwartz Planning Department, Ctty of t•tialtii 3342 Pan American Drive Post Office Box 330708 Miami, Florida 33133 Dear Mr. Schwartz: Economics Research Associates is pleased to submit this proposal for an economic and market analysis of the secondary development area of the Civic Center. In response to your request for a proposal, this submission is organized into four sections containing the study proposal and methodology, project organ- ization and staff, employment data and equal opportunity policy, and a summary of previous experience. The proposed study plan provides for a comprehensive economic and mar- ket analysis of the secondary development area (SDA). ERA proposes to conduct an economic and market study of the existing conditions in the SDA and develop- ment opportunities for housing, retail, office -medical center support facili- ties, hotel, and entertainment complex; conduct specialized market surveys; select sites for program development; evaluate the selected projects to deter- mine financial feasibility and public sector impact; prepare applications to the Urban Development Action Grant program for selected projects in the SDA; and provide an economic impact analysis of the Civic Center and Medical Center complex on adjoining land uses and the area economy. This study will be con- ducted with the understanding that the City is attempting to stimulate private investment and renewal in the SDA for entirely private developments and joint pri- vate/public ventures sponsored through the UDAG program. As such, the study will address development opportunities on both an areawide and :Ate -specific basis.. Economics Research Associates brings to this proposed study qualifica- tions in urban real estate economics, public planning, economic packaging and financial analysis, and medical economics and facilities planning. Currently, ERA is active in the Miami area with several studies, including an analysis of the development potentials of specialty retail facilities on the Miami. River - front, .a feasibility study of a proposed recreation complex on Watson island, linancial con.mlting service; on project packaging in the South Shore Redevel- opment Program, and economic planning for a regional park serving Dade and llrvward counties. p c A Planning Research Company Mt, Matthew Schwattt September 15, 191) Page Two Of special relevancy to the SDA analysis is a consultation that ERA is just completing in the City of Oakland, California. As part of a move comprehensive analysis of business development opportunities in Oakland, we gathered and analyzed the impact of a major expansion of the hospital and medical center. The area, familiarly known as "Pill Hill," is the location of four major private hospitals which are engaged in a coordinated program of growth in terms both of physical facilities and areas of medical special- ization. We believe that the experience gained from this analysis will pro- vide ERA with a special insight and understanding of the economic impacts of the medical center complex. We look forward to again being of service to the City of Miami. Respectfully submitted, David C. Petersen Manager, Florida Office Brian D. Bash Senior Associate 1 MlibY PROPOSAL AND METHODOLOGY' The following study plan provides for a comprehensive analysis of the development opportunities within the SDA with emphasis on opportunities for joint, public/private ventures appropriate for funding under the new U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Urban Development Action Grant program. The recommendations and findings of this study will be based on a thorough review of prior studies, an analysis of existing conditions and trends in the SDA, to be obtained through secondary data sources of po- tential surveys, and financial analyses of selected development packages. The following material presents ERA's proposed study plan. Task 1. Review of Previous Studies The proposed study of the SDA can potentially benefit from several recent studies. Among these are the: Miami Comprehensive Neighborhood Plan, 1976-1986 Jackson Memorial Hospital Master Plan Downtown Miami, 1973-1985, An Urban Development and Zoning Plan Comprehensive Development Master Plan for Metropolitan Dade County Downtown Government Center Master Plan These studies have extensive compilations of socioeconomic data and develop- ment trends and provide in some instances projections of future growth and development. These studies will provide a valuable resource throughout the conduct of this work. ERA is already familiar with this work by virtue of current assignments in the City on► the recreation development potentials on Watson Island and analysis of specialty retail development on the Miami Riverfront. As indicated in Part 1Z of the proposal, ERA does not require much time to conduct this task. Due to ERA's prior understanding of the other studies, the work conducted in Task 1 would Include: A. Compilation of relevant studies into a resource manual 11. Inquiry with private interests to determine extent of other studies or research that may have been conducted to advise the private sector on development opportunities. Task �,.„ Aitaiysis of Existing Conditions in the SDA This element of the study plan will provide a cornprehensiVe analysis of existing conditions and recent development trends in the SDA. Activities to be conducted in Task 2 include: A. Review of existing land use inventory to determine extent of development, vacant land, land prices, rents, sale prices, and other factors. B. Analysis of socioeconomic characteristics of the resi- dent population of the SDA. C. Analysis of the characteristics of the employment popu- lation for the SDA to determine overall numberuofanemployees* income levels, potential expenditure patterns, other factors. D. Review of recent development trends to identify charac- teristics of private sector development in terms of market orientation and pricing. E. Determine the extent of recent public sector or institutional development. Task 3. Real Estate Market Analysis Utilizing the work conducted in Tasks 1 and 2, and ERA's prior k;;,,'_�ge of the area, an in-depth real estate market analysis will be undertaken. This task will encompass an analysis of office and institu- tional space, retail facilities, housing, hotel, and recreation and enter- tainment facilities. The following activities will be undertaken in Task 3. A. Market Support Analysis for Office and Institutional Space. The analysis of office space potential will be separated into private market space and public institutional space. The important factors to be examined in this market analysis would include, but not necessarily be limited to, the following: • Occupancy rates, types of tenants, and rental structure of existing market area office space • Inventory of proposed and planned new construction Recent market area construction and absorption trends Forecasts of total employment by category, private sector office employment and public sector office employment ▪ Qualitative and locationaL considerations which provide the area with certain competitive advantages and disadvantages. Specific evaluation of development opportunities for medical facilities. the tnatket analysis will provide the basis for recomrnetia, dations as to size, market orientation, leasing rates; - absorption period, and timing of both private and public sector office development. Market Support Analysis for Retail Land Uses. Retail trade is a critical element in a development progranf. Properly planned and sized, it can he an important factor in bolstering the market for residential and office development. Through a detailed market evaluation, development opportunities and constraints can be identified. Activities to be carried out in this part of the research program would include, but not necessarily be limited to, the following elements: 1. Identify market and trade areas Review existing studies Examine existing retail uses and commercial services in the area . Examine and survey retail and commercial developments • Establish primary and secondary trade areas for the area 2. Evaluate market population trends and socioeconomic characteristics . Family size and composition . Age and racial composition • Income characteristics • Employment characteristics . Disposable income and buying power • Employee expenditure characteristics The above analysis would be carried out by pre -delineated trade areas and by other relevant indices. 3. Prepare growth projections for the trade area based on an -analysis of pertinent secondary data and informa- tion developed by ERA. 4. Evaluate buying habits and expenditure patterns for specific retail categories using existing information and census data. ERA would generate per capita expendi- tures to be used in projecting demand for retail space in the area. 5. Based on the carious above analyses, determine and project market potentials and capture rates for individual retail and commercial land uses. Describe each category in terms of: . Potential sales . Supportable square footage 9 I l 7 3 3 3 1 3 ■ {drket Support for Housing. The Work activities to be carried out would include; but itot ttecessariLy be limited to, the following steps, 1, Based on past trends, survey data and census data, determine basic housing parameters in terms oft • Propensity to own versus rent • Household size . Ability to pay for housing , Project Housing needs in terms of the following demand components: • New growth demand for housing, based on population projections and the established houshold size • Replacement demand for housing, based on estimated demolition activity and the age distribution of the housing inventory • Stratify the above Housing demand projections in terms of the type and price of units required and the market orientation as it relates to income and occupation groups. • Based on the above analyses and projections and the physical and functional characteristics of the area, estimate by type of units, the number of housing units which could be absorbed annually in the area. Market. Support_[or Hotcl_pevelopment. The development of new hotel/motel facilities could also strengthen the .area's retail facilities and enhance feas- ibility of proposed commercial developments. Key variables to he examined in this market analysis would include, hut not at'•:e:::-:?ri ly be i i. ! teA to, the followin'.;: 1. Survey major hotels in the market area to determine loc:atiunal characteristics; number of rooms, average room rate; annual and seasonal occupancy levels; group meeting, dining, commercial, and recreational facilities available; parking; availability and characteristics; and breakdown of occupancy by source -- business visi- tors, tourists, and groups. . Determine the present and future need for hotel rooms based on tourist and business -related demand. Con- sideration will be given to present levels of visita- tion, existing room inventories and planned additions, and occupancy levels. . Based can locationaL factors, determine the supportable number of hotel units in the area. • Market Support for Recreation and Entertainment Facilities. Recognizing the importance of activity -generating recreation uses and the opportunity to capture a portion of the rapidly growing leisure -time market, market research will be under- taken to evaluate the following: 1. Analysis of recreation facilities to serve both the resident population and employees in the SDA. This analysis would determine the extent of competitive facilities, the demand for recreation facilities, and the market potential for development in the SDA. 2: Entertainment facilities will be evaluated to determine opportunities for theaters, mini -theater complexes, and special restaurant/entertainment facilities. Survey of Potential Market Support During the course of this analysis of development potentials, opportunities may arise to utilize a market survey. Surveys could potentially be utilized, for example, to establish retail trading patterns of the resident population, evaluate the hous- ing needs of the employment population, or determine recreation facility use and demand. ERA has employed a variety of surveys and has analyzed housing preferences, shopping patterns, charac- teristics of recreation activities. The use of a survey(s) would depend upon a variety of factors not all foreseeable at this time. In any event, ERA would be prepared to design, administer, and tabulate a survey. Task 4. Selection of Redevelopment Sites Task 4, to he conducted with the participation of the City Planning Department, will select potential sites for the redevelopment program. let what could be termed workshop sessions, ERA and the Planning staff will eval- uate potential sites on the basis of such criteria as • Development opportunities, particularly as the development relates to economic opportunities for low income persons • Potential economic impact • Adjoining land uses • Role in overall economic framework of SDA • Accessibility • Environmental impact • Probability of implementation • Private :sector interest • Potential public sector cost Also, in this task a redevelopment program would be formulated for the selected sites designating major actions required by public and private interests and a timetable for implementation. Task,::.. j»itiancial Analysis A financial analysis will be undertaken of each proposed redevelopment site to determine the financial implications to both the private and public sector. ERA will utilize in this task its severalcomputerized financial models which provide for cost effective testing of alternative development assump- tions. Task 5 will involve for each selected redevelopment site: A. Analysis of public sector cost in terms of site preparation, infrastructure cost, and other factors, as well as potential revenues from a land sale or lease. The analysis will dis- tinguish between residual land values and current land prices. B. Preparation of financial analysis for developer review and use. This would include a full financial analysis typically required by private developers and could demonstrate revenues, debt service, operating cost, cash flow, equity requirements, return on investment, phasing and implications of alternative financial parameters. C. Evaluation of funding sources would provide an overview of the relative participation of the public and private sectors in the development package, the extent to which public funds are able to leverage private investment, and likely sources of private funds. Task 6. Preparation of Urban Development Action Grant Application The Urban Development Action Grant (UDAG) program application will be prepared i,t this task. Tho UDAG pro:;rain is designed to provide federal assis- tance to economically distressed cities for economic and community development. To the extent necessary, data required for the application not already provided in Tasks 1 through 5 will be developed. While this program is still in its for- mative stages, present guidelines call for four major areas of emphasis. 1. The project is ready for implementation. 2. Public/private joint financing with an emphasis on highly leveraged projects able to maximize private investment and minimize public investment. 3. Creation of permanent jobs. 4. Entpha:ci:: on direct or indirect economic assistance for low income person:,. • ' ask_ ,,...-Aiidlysis of. the impact ,of the Civic Centet An analysis; will be undertake to evaluate the future ifttpact• of the Civic: Center and the• rrodieal center complex on surrounding heighbethOods and the local. economy. Titi:; will include: A. Analysis and projection of future developments in the Civic Center. B. Evaluation of economic parameters of the Civic Center in terms of employment, employee expenditures, value of private development, tax payments, other factors. C. Evaluation of the impact of the medical center in terms of its contribution to city employment, taxes, and services. D. 1cview of economic linkages between the Civic Center, the central business district, and tite medical complex to determine the extent of mtttat support, complementary roles, and correlation of development trends.