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HomeMy WebLinkAboutTab 45C - Magic City Economic Impact StudyADVISORY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS: MAGIC CITY INNOVATION DISTRICT - Prepared by - Lambert Advisory, LLC - Prepared for - MCD Miami, LLC June 2018 Economic Impact Analysis - Magic City Innovation District Economic Impact Analysis Magic City Innovation District Introduction and Summary of Key Findings Lambert Advisory has completed an updated economic impact analysis for the proposed development of Magic City Innovation District, a large scale mixed use residential and commercial project located in the City of Miami's Little Haiti neighborhood. The analysis estimates the tangible direct and indirect economic impacts that will be derived from the construction and operation of the development and based upon the inputs and assumptions set forth herein. This report identifies and quantifies the benefits created by the proposed Magic City Innovation District development within Miami -Dade County and the City of Miami. The methodology, assumptions, and analysis governing this document are detailed in the Methodology, Analysis and Results section below, with a summary of economic benefit headlines as follows: • For all phases of the proposed 10-year development period, there will be an estimated 930 short term construction jobs average annually, which will create more than $500 million in short term construction wages and expenditure aggregated during this period - o including an estimated $42 million in permit and impact fees; • There will be an estimated $188 million annual marginal expenditure generated from residents, hotel visitors, retail patrons, and office tenants upon stabilized operations; • Upon stabilized operations, the proposed development will generate more than $27 million in marginal annual ad valorem taxes, $1.3 million in Hotel Bed Tax Revenue, and $4.0 million in total sales tax collections; and, • The development will create more than 11,680 direct and indirect full-time jobs and approximately $640 million in direct and indirect wages annually related to building employment and operating expenditures. Methodology, Analysis and Results The Magic City Innovation District property is situated in the City of Miami's Little Haiti neighborhood, and generally bounded on the north at NE 63rd Street, on the east by the rail road tracks and NE 4th Court, on the south by NE 60th Street, and on the west by NE 2nd Avenue. The property is adequately accessible to major thoroughfares, including I-95, I-195, and US 1. The proposed residential, hotel, retail, and office development will have a positive impact on the surrounding community in terms of taxes, jobs, and general investment generated, and will also enhance the area's existing commercial/retail demand. This development will help maintain economic stability within the area and attract on -going investment during the next several years. We have completed this analysis on the basis of generalized development and performance information (i.e., development program by use, development timing, development costs, residential and commercial sales/rental rates, absorption/occupancy, and other operating performance measures) that is estimated based upon information provided by MCD Miami, LLC (Developer). Importantly, Lambert has not independently verified through a market study, or otherwise, the development cost and/or operating performance data and cannot attest to the accuracy of those 2 Economic Impact Analysis - Magic City Innovation District estimates herein. Given the level of variability in development details at this point in time, the analysis herein is being prepared on an order -of -magnitude basis. The analysis herein has been prepared to reflect the economic impact of development related activity upon completion within a 10-year development timeframe (from current date), and for the purposes of this analysis assumes the period in which the recurring economic impacts from the vast majority of the residential and commercial uses will be derived from operations. The economic impacts as stated herein from construction and operation of the Magic City Innovation District development are presented in current (2018) dollars. Any change in development and/or operating assumptions from those utilized as part of this analysis can have a material impact on the direct and in -direct economic indicators stated herein. The overall development master plan contemplated for this analysis includes: 2,630 residential units; 432 hotel rooms; 1.98 million square feet of net office space; 344,548 square feet of net retail space; and 101,669 square feet of storage. There will be 5,690 garage parking spaces supporting the subject development. A profile of the project follows: Figure 1: Magic City Innovation District - Site & Building Summary Profile Source: MCD Miami, LLC Residential Units Hotel Rooms Office Space (net) Retail Space (net): Expo/Storage (net) Parking Spaces: 2,630 units 432 rooms 1,987,686 sq.ft. 344,548 sq.ft. 101,669 sq.ft. 6,081 spaces As noted, construction of Magic City Innovation District is projected to be completed within a ten- year timeframe. Based upon the information provided and estimates made, construction and subsequent operations of Magic City Innovation District will generate considerable benefits to the immediate area, the City of Miami, and the broader Miami -Dade County community. There are four key areas in which the project will provide positive economic impacts: 1. Short-term construction employment and expenditure 2. Long-term residential, worker and visitor expenditure 3. Long-term building employment and operating expenditure 4. Indirect flow -through benefits (employment) For both short-term and long-term impacts, which are detailed in the following analysis, the economic benefit to the area is the result of projected increases in revenue from primary sources, including employment, wages, and taxes. Accordingly, the impact from these key sources comes from two distinct measures: • Direct Expenditures - disbursements for site acquisition and development (hard and soft costs), resident/worker/visitor expenditure, and expenditures associated with the operation of the grounds and building 3 Economic Impact Analysis - Magic City Innovation District • Indirect Expenditures - net additional expenditures that flow into the local economy as a result of the new development Estimates of the tangible impacts from direct and indirect expenditures are captured by this analysis. However, potential intangible impacts - such as the project's ability to serve as a catalyst for future development in the immediate area - are not included, as they are nearly impossible to quantify. Economic impacts from the four key sources are detailed in the following sections. 1. Short -Term Construction Employment and Expenditure The impact from short-term construction employment and expenditure is directly associated with the project's development; the table below shows a summary of estimated development costs: Figure 2: Magic City Innovation District - Summary of Development Costs Source: MCD Miami, LLC Item Cost Hard Costs $1,087,000,000 Soft Costs $433,000,000 Total $1,520,000,000 Note: Development costs do not include land cost. The majority of development -related expenditures will be made in Miami -Dade County, and the City of Miami will capture a significant share of these expenditures. Labor will account for approximately 60 percent ($652 million) of hard costs, and materials will account for 40 percent ($434 million). At an average annual construction wage of $53,7281 in Miami -Dade County, with a benefit/overhead multiplier of 1.3, there will be approximately 930 Full Time Equivalent (FTE) jobs created average annually over the 10-year development timeline; or, 9,300 FTE jobs in aggregate during the construction period. Additionally, over $30 million in professional fees (or approximately 2.0 percent of total development costs excluding land) are expected to be paid to Miami area firms (e.g., architecture, engineering, legal). Assuming an average profit margin of 15 percent and overhead of 30 percent, nearly $16 million in professional wages will be paid out by these firms. The proposed development will generate significant Impact and other fees payable to the City and County during the construction period which will be available for public expenditures associated with the project including roadways, schools, parks, developmental, administrative, permitting, and other costs. It is very difficult at this point to determine the impact fee and other fees since many of these costs are dependent upon certain utility and design components that underlie the fee calculation (ie. the number of seats in a restaurant determines gallons per day of water/sewer utilization and, in turn, the associated water and sewer connection fees). Nonetheless, based upon an understanding of impact fees related to large-scale mixed use development, the impact fees are 1 Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, QECW 4" Quarter 2017 4 Economic Impact Analysis — Magic City Innovation District estimated to be more than $42 million over the construction period, and more than half of these fees should be received by the City of Miami. 2. Long -Term (On -Going) Resident, Shopper, Employment and Visitor Expenditure The Magic City Innovation District development will generate long term area -wide expenditure from residents living in the development, shoppers and hotel guests visiting the property, and office and workers/tenants within the building. Following is a summary of expenditure by demand component: Residential: The Magic City Innovation District development contemplates new, quality housing for its existing neighborhood resident base, as well as for the growing community in and around the area. The development plan envisions 2,630 units accommodating a broad range of tenants. It is estimated that the Magic City Innovation District will primarily serve families with average household income generally between $55,000 and $75,000. Therefore, with a total of approximately 2,630 households in the building (at 95 percent stabilized occupancy), total personal income for the building is estimated to be nearly $187 million. However, a portion of this expenditure represents residents who currently reside within the City limits and simply moving from one location within the City (or Downtown area) to another. In the effort to quantify the level of housing demand the Magic City Innovation District will generate from new residents outside of the City, Lambert had discussions with select residential industry representatives serving the greater Downtown Miami area. Although we were unable to gather detailed statistical data from these representatives, cursory discussions point to relative consensus that a minimum of approximately 50+ percent of the resident base moving into the greater Downtown area is from outside of the City. Considering this, we assume that half of the tenants within Magic City Innovation District will relocate from outside of the City; or, nearly $94 million of marginal personal income will flow into Miami. We have estimated the marginal impact of $94 million in household income on retail sales and space demanded, using the Lambert Advisory Retail Trade Model. The following table provides a summary of additional retail expenditure and demand for space as a result of development of the Magic City Innovation District apartments upon stabilized operations (in 2018 $'s) and indicates potential net new demand for retail space of approximately 56,000 square feet. 5 Economic Impact Analysis Magic City Innovation District Figure 3: Magic City Innovation District - Area Expenditure Potential (from New -to -Miami Magic City Innovation District Residents) Type of Good Estimated Marginal Sales per Square Feet Expenditure Growth Square Foot Demanded General Merchandise Apparel and Accessories Furniture and Home Equipment Electronic and Appliance Stores Sporting Goods, Books and Music Stores Miscellaneous Shoppers/Other Goods Shoppers Goods - Sub -Total Food Stores Eating & Drinking Establishments Health & Personal Care Stores Convenience Goods - Sub -Total $1,236,800 $638,484 $174,368 $170,694 $83,082 $365,390 $300 $330 $270 $350 $280 $325 4,123 1,935 646 488 297 1,127 $2,668,818 $4,994,888 $9,189,455 $ 2,144,454 $310 8,615 $300 $395 $385 16,650 23,264 5,570 $16,328,797 $359 45,484 Building Materials $258,432 $127 2,043 Total $19,256,046 $343 56,142 Retail: The roughly 345,000 square feet (net) of retail/showroom planned will also attract retail expenditure. Given its potential positioning as a destination property, it is assumed that at least 50 percent of the expenditure in Magic City Innovation District retail will come from outside the City, and based upon an average sales per square foot (for Shopper Goods and Eating and Drinking Establishments) of $340, approximately $60 million will be expended within the City per year which is now going to other areas - assuming 95 annual stabilized occupancy. Hotel: For the 432 hotel rooms, we assume that the hotel inventory in total will have an average annual occupancy of 70 percent (or more than 110,000 occupied annual room nights), with an average daily rate of $230. Furthermore, based upon a hotel guest surveys completed by Lambert Advisory for the Miami Downtown Development Authority (DDA) during the past several years, we estimate each hotel room (with an average double occupancy) spends an average of $100 per visit in retail/restaurant expenditure, $125 per visit in retail (shopping) purchases, $58 per visit in local transportation, and $32 per visit sporting events and entertainment within the City. Therefore, each occupied hotel room spends on average approximately $315 per visit outside of hotel room charge (for an average 2-3 night length of stay), or nearly $26 million in additional marginal visitor expenditure in the Miami area assuming 50 percent of the expenditure is net new hotel demand to Miami and 25 percent is already captured in the Magic City Innovation District retail (as described above). Office: The development proposes approximately 1.98 million total rentable office square feet, which we assume will operate at a stabilized 10 percent vacancy factor. Based upon recent office metrics studies for the Miami DDA, and on a conservative basis, there is an average 230 square feet per employee for office space. Considering this, Magic City Innovation District office 6 Economic Impact Analysis — Magic City Innovation District space will accommodate approximately 5,700 workers. Based upon data published by the Urban Land Institute (ULI) in a 2011 office worker survey, the average downtown office worker spends roughly $5,790 annually on goods and services during the work day. Assuming that up to 70 percent of new office tenants will be new to Miami, and accounting for the potential that 50 percent of this retail expenditure is already captured in the Magic City Innovation District retail, total additional worker expenditures are estimated to be nearly $7.8 million. Expo/Storage: The 101,000 square feet of expo/storage will provide a key amenity to the overall master plan. The primary economic benefit for this use will be fiscal -related (ad valorem tax), as type facilities generally require marginal employment and operating costs. In sum, there is estimated to be more than $188 million in net new retail expenditure annually from the proposed Magic City Innovation District development, and summarized as follows: Figure 4: Summary of Retail Expenditure Generated (by Use) from Magic City Innovation District Upon Stabilized Operations USE Residential Retail Hotel Office Expo/Storage TOTAL EXPENDITURE $94,000,000 $60,000,000 $26,000,000 $7,800,000 n/a $187,800,000 3. Long -Term (On -Going) Building Employment and Operating Expenditure There are a number of areas where positive public benefits or economic impacts will result from the on -going operation of the residential development. These include: • Additional employment from operation of the residential buildings, retail, office and hotel facilities; • Property tax revenue to the City of Miami and Miami County, as well as Sales Tax to the State; and • Purchase of goods and services. As summarized above, we estimated employment for office to derive expenditure for those specific uses. However, there will also be employment from operation of the residential buildings, retail space, and hotel. We estimate that 88 FTE workers will be needed to operate the residential buildings (1 worker per 30+ units), approximately 950 FTE workers will be employed in the retail stores (based upon a general estimate of mix of space indicating 1 worker per 150 square feet for restaurants and 1 worker per 450 square feet for retail), and 215 hotel employees (0.5 workers per room). Positions such as building managers, parking garage attendants, maintenance staff, and security personnel will need to be filled. At an average Miami County wage of $54,8522 the operation of the buildings and related private employment will generate approximately $345 million in wages each year. Positions at various skill levels will be made available to area residents. 2 Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, QECW 4" Quarter 2017 7 Economic Impact Analysis Magic City Innovation District Figure 5: Summary of Net New Employment (by Use) and Direct Wages Created by Magic City Innovation District Upon Stabilized Operations USE Residential Retail Hotel Office TOTAL - Direct Employment Average Annual Wages (All) TOTAL - Direct Wages (rd) Employment 88 950 215 5.700 6,953 $54,842 $380,000,000 Increased State and local sales tax revenue will result from the operation of the 380,000 square feet of new retail space. Assuming the net new retail expenditure in stores totals $55 million, approximately $4.0 million in additional sales tax will be collected from retail sales. Importantly, the City of Miami and/or Miami -Dade County are among the primary beneficiaries of a 6.0 percent Tourist and Convention Development Tax (or Bed Tax), which is comprised of the Convention Development Tax (3%), Tourist Development Tax (2%), and Professional Sports Facilities Franchise Tax. Based upon estimated ADR and occupancy rates, the total Bed Tax generated from Magic City Innovation District is estimated to be $1.3 million per annum. Finally, the development of Magic City Innovation District will provide significant benefit to the City and County by way of real property and personal property (ad valorem) taxes. The tax amount is based upon the County Tax Collector's (2017) millage rate of 21.184 (per thousand dollars of value), broken down as follows. Figure 6: Magic City Innovation District - Ad Valorem Tax Estimate Source: Miami -Dade County Property Appraiser; MCD Miami, LLC; Lambert Advisory Item Millage Annual Tax City of Miami Operating City of Miami Debt Miami Dade County Operating Miami Dade County Debt Miami Dade County Schools (State, Local) Miami Dade County School Debt South Florida Water Mgmt. Okeechobee Basin Everaglade Construction Library District Children's Services FIND 7.4365 0.594 4.6669 0.4000 6.774 0.220 0.1275 0.1384 0.0441 0.284 0.467 0.032 $9,612,514 $767,166 $6,032,494 $517,045 $8,756,158 $284,375 $164,808 $178,898 $57,004 $367,102 $604,038 $41,364 TOTAL 21.1842 $27,382,965 8 Economic Impact Analysis Magic City Innovation District Real property is typically assessed at between 80 and 90 percent of Fair Market Value (FMV); or, for the purposes of this analysis, we calculate ad valorem taxes for Magic City Innovation District based on the estimated total development cost (including land) of approximately $1.5 billion. As a result, the development should generate more than $27.0 million in net new real property taxes upon stabilized operations (in 2018 $'s). 4. Indirect Flow -Through Benefits There will be a number of long term indirect flow -through benefits beyond construction from the project, particularly from the residential and commercial building operations and employment. This multiplier is derived from Lambert' s long-term use and experience with an input-output model developed by IMPLAN, among the most recognized economic impact modeling systems in the US providing complete and extremely detailed Social Accounting Matrices (SAM) and Multiplier Models of local economies. Based upon our assessment of the IMPLAN modeling processes, development and building operations are assumed to have a 0.68 multiplier impact. Considering this, the roughly 6,950 FTE jobs created as a result of residential and commercial operations are estimated to create 4,730 additional jobs. A summary of both short term and long term (recurring) economic impacts from the proposed Magic City Innovation District development is summarized in the following table. Figure 7: Magic City Innovation District - Summary of Economic Impacts (Rounded) Impact Short Term Construction Employment & Expenditure Full Time Jobs (Average Annual During All Development Phases) Direct Wages (Aggregated During All Development Phases) Professional Wages (Aggregated During All Development Phases) Impact Fees Toward Public Expenditure Total Impact, Short Term Const. Employment & Expenditure 934 $505,000,000 $16,700,000 $42,000,000 $563,700,000 Long -Term (On -Going) Resident and Commerical Expenditure Marginal Expenditure Growth — Residents $94,000,000 Marginal Expenditure — Retail, Hotel, Exhibition, Office, Industrial $94,000,000 Marginal Impact from On -Going Resident, Commercial Expenditure $188,000,000 Long -Term (On -Going) Building Employment and Operating Expenditure Full Time Jobs (Annual) 6,950 Total Direct Wages Created $380,000,000 Sales Tax from Additional Retail Sales $4,100,000 Hotel Bed Tax $1,300,000 Ad Valorem Taxes (marginal) $27,000,000 Total Impact from On -Going Operations of the Buildings $413,900,000 Indirect Flow Through Benefits Full Time Jobs (Indirect) — Miami Dade County 4,730 Total Indirect Wages Created $259,200,000 Total Flow Through Indirect Benefits $259,200,000 9