Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAboutEconomic Impact AnalysisGoodkin©©crau 0 A Strategic Alliance with PricewaterhouseCo,MPers LLP • • 9[Ing PROPOSED CONDOMINIUM DEVELOPI\IENT MIAMI RIVER ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS ROYAL ATLANTIC (RESIDENTIAL AND RETAIL DEVELOPMENT) Prepared for: ROYAL ATLANTIC DENTLOP TENT Prepared by: GooDKIN CONSULTING OCTOBER 2003 First Union Financial Center, Suite 1900, 200 S. Biscayne Blvd., Miami,FL 33131-2330. 305 381-9400, Direct LEne 305 375-7372, Fax 305 375-6384 • • • GENERAL LIMITING CONDITIONS Goodkin Consulting and Goodkin Research Corporation have made extensive efforts to confirm the accuracy and timeliness of the information contained in this study. The information was compiled from a variety of sources, including interviews with developers and their agents, government officials and other third parties. Although Goodkin Consulting believes all infoiadation in this study is correct, it does not warrant the accuracy of such in.fotuiation, and assumes no responsibility for inaccuracies in the information provided by third parties. Possession of this report does not carry with it the right of publication. We have no responsibility to update this report for events and circumstances occurring after the date of this report. Contractual obligations do not include access to or ownership transfer of any electronic data processing files, programs, or models completed directly for or as a by-product of this research effort. In accordance with our contract, we did not ascertain the legal and regulatory requirements applicable to this project, including zoning, other state and local government regulations, permits and licenses. Further, no effort has been made to determine the possible effect on this project of present or future federal, state, or local legislation, including any regarding environmental or ecological matters. The accompanying projects are based on estimates and assumptions developed in connection with the market study. However, some assumptions inevitably will not materialize, and unanticipated events and circumstances may occur. Therefore, actual results achieved during the projection period will likely vary from the projections, and some of the variations may be material. This report may not be used for any purpose, other than that for which it is prepared. No part of the contents of this study shall be disseminated to the public through advertising media, news media, sales media, or any other public means of communication without prior written consent and approval of Goodkin Consulting_ The only exception is information available to those sources through the public records of any documents used in public hearings. GoodIdn© n t Strategic Alliance With /ZtC JVATERHOUsECOPERS Royal At tie t Miami River • • TABLE OF CONTENTS ROYAL ATLANTIC — BUILDING FEATURES & PROFILE _IMPACT FROM SHORT-TERM CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT AND EXPENDITURE DEVELOPMENT CIE.T COSTS ---- ROYAL ATLANTIC N ROYAL ATLANTIC — ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS — IMPACT AND OTHER FEES 5 ON -GOING IMPACT FROM RESIDENT AND SHOPPER EXPENDITURE 6 ROYAL ATLANTIC — AREA EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL (FROM NET NEW MIAMI — ROYAL ATLANTIC RESIDENCE) — 2008 6 IMPACT FROM ON -GOING OPERATIONS OF THE BUILDING 7 ROYAL ATLANTIC — ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS — AD -VALOREM TAX BREAKDOWN 8 INDIRECT FLOW -THROUGH BENEFITS 9 S u r ARY — ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM ROYAL ATLANTIC — 748 UNIT DEVELOPMENT PLAN 10 RETAIL TRADE MODEL I I Goodkln©©Fg U, n„ J rin A Strategic Alliance With PRICE/VATERHOUSECCOPEPS • • • .Royal Atlantic / Miami River Goodkin Consulting (GC) has completed an Economic Impact Analysis for the Royal Atlantic development, a residential project located along the Miami River, in the City of Miami, Florida. The analysis contemplates the tangible direct and indirect economic impact which will be derived from the construction and operation of the development. The objective is to identify various benefits created by the Royal Atlantic development and prepare an estimate of such benefits to the City of vliarni. The Royal Atlantic property is situated along the Miami River, on the western fringes of Miami's Central Business District. The property is adequately accessible to major thoroughfares including US 1, 1-95 and the Palmetto Expressway. The luxury residential development is anticipated to have a positive impact on the surrounding community in terms of taxes and jobs generated, general investment, as well as enhance the area's commercial/retail demand. Furtheriuore, the prospective development plan will only serve to enhance economic stability within the area and, if successful, attract on -going investment during the next several years. GOOdidn©©- OUIung A Strategic Alliance With pRJCE 1ATERHOUSECOPERS • • • Royal Atlantic / Miami River A profile of the project as currently envisioned is as follows: Royal Atlantic Building Features & Profile General Features Site Size (Grass) Building Height Number of Residential Units Retail Space (rentable area) Number of Parking Spaces Detailed Building Profile Gross Building Area (wiparking) Maximum Development Area (FAR) Residential Area Retail Area Recreation Area Lobby/Admin/Other Area Gross Parking Area 6.31 acres 27 stories 748 units 7,798 sq.ft. 1,185 spaces 1,238,871 sq.ft. 708,165 sq.ft. 570,632 sq.ft. 7,798 sq.ft. 83,109 sq.ft. 45,828 sq.ft. 497,437 sq.ft. Source: Royal Atlantic Developers (Miami River, LLP) Note: GC has not reviewed any development plans, schematics, and/or detailed physical information for Royal Atlantic. Estimates above based upon data provided by Client, and/or estimates made by Goodkin, which may be subject to change. Development of the Royal Atlantic property is expected to commence pre -sales and construction by January 2004. The construction process will be completed in two phases (two towers) and is anticipated to be approximately twenty six months for the development of each phase (tower), with a total development period estimated to be 52 months. As such, completion of the Royal Atlantic project is anticipated to be in the Second Quarter 2008. Furthermore, we have completed this analysis on the assumption that the performance of the project in terns of sale price, absorption, timing, and costs will have been provided by Royal Atlantic Developers/Miami River, LLP (and/or its professional representatives) and are accurate. As such, we have not independently verified the accuracy of this infoi iiiation or data. Go©dkif©C ©C" ��`,� ilA Strategic Alliance With 1C V17ERH©UsEC PER5 • • • Ronal Atlantic l Miami River 3 Based upon the information provided, construction and subsequent operations of the Royal Atlantic development, the property as currently envisioned will generate considerable benefits to the immediate area, the City of Miami and the metro -Miami community. There are four key areas where the project will provide positive economic benefit: • Short -Term construction employment and expenditure • Long -Term owner and shopper expenditure • Long-Tet ui operating employment and operating expenditure • Indirect secondary and tertiary flow trough benefits For both short-teini and long-term impacts, which are detailed in the following analysis, the economic benefit to the area is the result of projected increase in revenue from primary sources including employment, wages. and taxes. Accordingly, the impact from these key sources comes from two distinct measures: 1.) Direct Expenditures -- include disbursements for site acquisition and development (hard and soft costs); and, 2.) Indirect Expenditures - net additional expenditures that flow into the local economy as a result of the new development. We have made an attempt to quantify the tangible impacts from direct and indirect expenditures. However, potential intangible impacts such as the project's ability to serve as a catalyst for future development in the immediate area is not included in the analysis since it is almost impossible to capture these ethereal aspects of the project in numbers. Goodkincnuk J A Strategic Alliance With IJRICEFAATERHOUSE DOPERS • • • Royal Atlantk / Miami River The followin, analysis sets forth the economic impact the four key sources as follows: Impact from Short -Term Construction Employment and .Expenditure The impact from short-term construction employment and expenditure is directly associated with the project's development; the following table details estimated development costs as provided by Royal Atlantic (rounded): Development Costs Royal Atlantic Item Phase I — Cost Phase II - Cost Total - Cost .' Hard Costs $ 32,934,000 $ 33,081,600 $ 66,0 5,60{ Soft Costs $ 8,233,500 $ 8,270,400 $16,503,900 Total $ 41,167,500 $ 41,352,000 $ '82,19,500 , Note: Hard and soft costs provided by Miarni River, LLP (and/or its representatives). While the vast majority of expenditure of each of these items will be made within Miami -.Dade County, the City of vtiarni will capture a significant share of the outflow from development. Of hard costs, approximately 60 percent ($39.6 million) will be spent in labor and 40 percent ($26.4 million) in materials. Over an estimated 52 month construction period at an average annual construction wage of 534,420 in Miami -Dade County and a 1.4 times benefit/overhead multiplier per worker, there will be nearly 190 Full Time Equivalent (FTE) jobs created during the four and--a-half year development period. Additionally, it is assumed that more than 55.0 million will be spent in professional fees entirely to Miami area firms. Given an average profit margin of 15% and 30% overhead for these films, this equates to $2.75 million in total professional wages. State of Florida 2002 ES-202 (Quarterly) Goodkinc©Taaing A Strategic Alliance With PR}CEV TERHOUSECWPERS • Roya! Atlantic ,' Miatn River 5 Impact and Other fees to the City and County during the construction period will be a total of approximately S3.7 million which will be available for public expenditures associated with the project including developmental, administrative, perrrnitting, schools, and other costs. A detail profile of impact fees and other relevant non -impact fees paid to the Cite and Miami -Dade County as a result of the development of Royal Atlantic is included in the following table: Royal Atlantic Economic impact Analysis Impact and Other Fees Impact Fees: City of Miami Development Impact Fee (Ord. 10426) City of Miami Development Impact Admin. Fee Miami Dade County Schools TOTAL IMPACT FEES Total $545,189 516,356 S981,616 $1,543,161 Other/Non-Impact Fees: Miami Dade W.A.S.A. Connection Fee $1,048,429 Building Permit Fee S142,262 Roadway Impact Fee $674,774 Variance Fee (height) 539,944 Energy Installation Fee 5107,587 M.U.S.P Application Fee $65,000 Dade County Code Compliance $41,260 Radon Gas Fee $10,759 Fire Plan Review Fee $9,683 Ground Cover Fee $828 Land Use/Zoning, Review for Bldg, Permit S786 Certicate of Occupancy $250 Application Fee $35 TOTAL OTHER FEES S2,141,596 TOTAL PROJECT FEES $3,684,757 Source: City of Miami Planning, Building & Zoning Dept.; Miami Dade County; Miami River, LLP Note: The analysis of Impact and Other Fees is based upon property and cost information provided by Miami River. LLP (andlor its representatives), as well as Impact and Other Fee factors provided by the City of Miami and/or Miami Dade County. GC has not independently verified project costs and fees; therefore, information above is subject to error anther ommissions. Goodkinc©nouElng A Strategic Alliance With VATERHOUSECOPERS • • Royal Atlantic i Miami River 6 On -Going Impact from Resident and Shopper Expenditure Based upon demographic and housing trends in the_ area. the community's resident base is expected to primarily be younger working professionals. Considering a proposed average sale price sl'.`' .ti below S200,000, it is assumed that the residents will comprise mostly :piddle to upper income individuallhouseholds with a 7002 median household income of at least S80,000. Therefore, with a total of 748 households in the Royal Atlantic community, total personal income for the building is estimated to exceed S60 million. Assuming that at least 40 percent of the owners will be new residents to the City, the marginal added personal income to flow into the Miami area is in the range of S24 million. To measure the marginal impact of S24 million in household income on retail sales and additional space demanded, we have used GC's Retail Trade Model to develop estimates. The full model is included as an Attachment to this report, but the following table highlights additional retail expenditure and demand for space as a result of development and sale of the units by mid-2008. Royal Atlantic Area Expenditure Potential (from Net New Miami - Royal Atlantic Residence) 2008 Est. Marginal Growth Expenditure Sales Per Square Feet 2008 Square Foot Demanded Type of Good General Merchandise $530,740 $227 2,338 Apparel and Accessories $510,624 $290 1,761 Furniture and Home Equipment $211,650 $227 932 Electronic and Appliance Stores $202,431 $200 1,012 Sporting Goods, Books and Music Stores $193,084 $250 772 Miscellaneous Shoppers Goods $294,492 $420 701 Shoppers Goods - Sub -Total $1,943,022 5258 7,517 Food Stores $3,157,059 3422 7,481 Eating & Drinking Establishments $2,027,106 $375 5,406 Health & Personal Care Stores $871,612 3407 2,142 Liquor $58,177 S280 208 Convenience Goods - Sub-Tctai $6,113,954 5401 15,236 Building Materials S435,802 5115 3,790 Total $8,492,777 $320 26,543 GOOdiifl©©ff Y`J ' A Strategic Alliance With JRICEWATERHOUSECQJPERS • • • Royal Atlantic / Miami River 7 The table above illustrates the marginai impact that Royal Atlantic (i.e. Net new 'Miami residents) will have both locally and regionally, notably the fact that residents will expend S8.5 rr.:iIlion annually within the City, which in turn \fill create demand for nearly 30,000 square feet of net; retail space -- much or which is expected to be concentrated .i'iti in relative close proximity to the property. In addition to the impact that Royal Atlantic residents will have both locally and regionally, the development includes 7,798 square feet of retail that will occupy the ground floor of the building. This additional retail space will primarily attract expenditure from the property and its immediate surrounding, with limited additional support frorri visitors from outside of the area. Assuming that 20 percent of the expenditure in Royal Atlantic retail comes from outside of the City, and based upon a Sales per Square Foot (for Shopper Goods) of 5258, close to $400,000 will be expended within the City per year which is now going to other areas_ Impact from On -Going Operations of the Building There are a number of areas where there will be positive public benefit or economic impact from the on -going operation of the residential and retail facilities. These include: • Additional Employment from Operation of the Residential and Retail Uses • Property Tax Revenue to the City of Miami and Miami -Dade County • Purchase of Goods and Services We estimate that approximately 18 FTE workers will be needed to operate the buildings and six additional employees to service the retail. Skills ranging from building management, parking garage attendants, maintenance staff, and security personnel will be required. At an average Miami. -Dade County wage of $34,6352 the operation of the building and will create 2 State of Florida 2002 ES-202 (Quarterly) Goodldn©gfAu sz A Strategic Alliance With PR 10EWATERHOUSECWPERS • • • Royal At ii tie !Miami River 8 approximately SS30,000 in wages each year. Jobs created will be available to a wide range of area residents with various skill levels. i ,an estimated at�, Aadi�[c,nally, t i�t.:t1 t..0 ��7(1'1�,0�n in �i�t7iYa r`3..r1(. services will be'�3�.':"i:1�1J�(1 on an annual basis within l liaim-Dacie. his tncludcs cleanin2 services, maintenance s ppiies, utilities, etc. Finally, the Royal Atlantic development will provide significant benefit to the City and County by way of real property and personal property (ad valorem) taxes. The tax amount is based upon the County Tax Collector's (2002) millage rate of 26.8205 (per thousand dollars of value), broken down as follows: Royal Atlantic Economic Impact Analysis Ad Valorem Tax Breakdown !tem City of Miami Operating City of Miami Debt School Operations School Debt Environmental Projects S. Florida Water Management FIND County Millage County Debt Library TOTAL Millage Annual Tax i 8.850 1.218 8.482 0.77 0.100 0.597 0.0385 5.889 0.39 0.486 S1,101,633 $151,615 $1,055,825 $95,848 $12,448 $74,314 $4,792 $733,052 $48,547 $60,496 26.8205 $3,338,569 Source: Dade Miami Dade County Property Appraiser Note: Ad Valorem Tax Assessment based upon unit sale value estimates provided by Miami River, LLP (and/or its representatives). G idn©cmg o.l' 1�11 ' A Strategic Alliance With / RJCFvVATERHOUtsECWPERS • • • Ronal Atlantic / Miami River 9 Real property is typically assessed at between SO and 90 percent of Fair Market Value. For this analysis, we estimate ad valorem taxes for Royal Atlantic based upon 85 percent of the projected average unit sale price of S 195,000, or S 146.0 .million in assessed value (which, for this analysis, includes an assessment for the limited retail area). Therefore, the real property taxes that will be generated annually from the property should exceed S3.4 million by 2008. Accordingly, this represents an estimated net marginal increase of more than S3.0 millions over the ad valorem tax collection the City would receive if the property were valued at the estimated land acquisition price (per infoliivation provided by Miami River, LLP) ofS9.5 million. Indirect Flow -Through Benefits There will be a number of long term indirect flow through benefits beyond construction from the project particularly from the increase in retail and operations employment. The 24 FTE jobs created as a result of building operations and retail is assumed to have a multiplier impact of 24 additional jobs. All multipliers are derived from the U.S. Department of Commerce's 1999 RLMS II model. These are indirect secondary and tertiary impacts which are created as the ripple impact of the primary employment related to the operation of the building and new retail space which will be felt throughout the region. Goc dkifl©a—aut A Strategic Alliance With PRiOE WATERHOUsE CDPERS • Royal Atlantic / Miami River 10 Summary Economic Impacts from Royal Atlantic — 748 Unit Development Plan Short Term Construction Employment & Expenditure Impact Ful! Time Jobs Created 190 Total Direct Wages Created $39,600,000 Additional Professional Wages (Miami -Dade County) S2,750,000 Impact Fees Toward Public Expenditure S3,600,000 Total Impact from Short Term Const. Employment & Expend. $45,950,000 Impact from On -Going Resident and Shopper Expenditure Impact Marginal Expenditure Growth — Residents (2008) $8,500,000 Marginal Im act from On-Goin Resident Ex end. $8,500,000 Impact from On -Going Operations of the Building/Retail Impact Full Time Jobs Total Direct Wages Created Goods & Service Purchased in Miami -Dade County Ad Valorem Taxes Total Impact from On -Going Operations of the Building/Retail 24 S830,000 $625,000 $3,300,000 $4,755,000 Indirect Flow Through Benefits — Employment Impact Full Time Jobs (Indirect) — Miami Dade County 24 Total Indirect Wages Created $830,000 Total Flow Through Indirect Benefits $830,000 Based upon the analysis set forth herein, the Royal Atlantic project will clearly have a positive economic impact on both the City of Miami and Miami -Dade County. Total employment created during the development phase is approximately 190, with on -going annual employment of 48 full-time jobs. Accordingly, there is an estimated S46 million impact from short teuii construction employment and expenditures, and a stabilized S 13+ million annual revenue stream from resident expenditures and building operations (including real property taxes). GOCdkin` ©n d4::11 a A Strategic Alliance With f�RICEIVATERHOUS�COPERS • • • Royal Atlantic / Miami River 11 RETAIL TRADE A, ODEL GOodkin©© @` 'Eng A Strategic Alliance With PRICENATERHOUSECCJPERS Royal Atlantic / Miami River RESIDENT EXPENDITURES FORECAST, BY MAJOR CATEGORY, ROYAL ATLANTIC PROJECTED 2008 TO 2011 TOTAL INCOME. TOTAL .L NON -AU T C RETAIL EXPENDITURES :nOP ;.H.'. EXPEND[TURES BY STORE TYPE: _741, ME CHANC:SS 05 STORE REH fiUSE C1.L;BS & SUPERSTORES 14:30 GEN MD5E APPAREL & ACCESSORES 1E:115 CLOTHVNG STORES v.'OMEN'S CLOTHING STORES C:4?ILDREN'S & IN.=:ANT CLOTHING FAMILY CLOTHING ACCESSORIES STORES OTHER LOTH1NG STORES SHORE STORES JE''P/ELRY STORES LUGGAGE & LEATHER STORES RNT'JRE & HOME EQUIPMENT FURNITURE STORES FLOOR COVERING STORES OTHER HOME FURNISHING STORES ELECTRONIC & APPLIANCE STORES APPLIANCE, TELEVISION & OTHER ELECTRONICS COMPUTER & SOFTWARE STORES CAMERA & PHOTOGRAPH[C SUPPLIES SPORTING GOODS. HOBBY. BOOK & MUSIC STORES SPORTING GOODS STORES HOBBY, TOY & GAMES STORES SEWING. NEEDLEWORK STORES MUSICAL INSTRUMENT STORES BOOK STORES NEWS DEALERS & NEWSSTAND CO & RECORD STORES 2008 2009 2010 2011 000.500 324.240.000 324.432,430 324,727,224 51 640.000 511756_400 311_873.98a 31, ,992.704 48 SU,;,a 43,50'N 43.50% 48.50% 32_021,663 3 2_087 .s2.3e2.508 32,383 133 31.46".772 3 _, _8 5_ : 7 555 52,3.371 3376_300 3382.083 3335 534 5389 763 3151.796 3163.414 3185. caa 5156 699 51,160,508 31,172,113 51.,133.334 31,195,673 369,340 570,533 $71.244 371,956 3247,932 3250,411 5262.915 6255,445 54.4,232 $44,674 $45.121 345,672 5346,733 3349,155 5352.657 3366.133 $20,952 521,152 $21.373 521,5337 $34,972 $85.822 536.580 587.547 5135,075 $136,927 5133,796 5190.534 $148,992 3150,482 3151.937 3153.507 312,804 512,932 313.991 513,192 $641.364 $647,778 5'654.255 $560,798 3378,300 3362,083 5385.904 5389.753 $123,334 3124.618 3125.364 3127,123 3139.530 3141,077 5142,433 $143.912 3613.423 3619,562 5625.758 $632.015 3445,812 $450.270 $454,773 $459.321 3148,992 $150,482 3151 987 5153,507 318,624 $13,310 $13,998 519,188 $438,823 $443,216 3447,648 $452,125 $157,140 5158,711 $150,299 5161,901 3107,088 5108,159 3109.240 5110,333 519,788 $19,986 52,0,186 320,388 $39,576 $39.972 $40.371 540.775 360,523 $61.133 56?,745 $62.352 $4.656 $4,703 54.750 54.797 $50,052 550,553 3511,033 551,569 MISCELLANEOUS S-G $535,440 5540,794 5546,202 3551,664 FLORIST S33,756 534,094 $34,434 534.779 OFFICE SUPPLIES & STATIONERY 3143,172 3144,504 5146,050 $147,510 GET, NOVELTIES 5100,104 3101,105 3102.116 $103,137 USED MERCHANDISE 550,052 350,553 $51,058 351,569 PET & PET SUPPLES $67,512 $63,187 363,869 $69,558 ART DEALERS $16,296 516,459 $16,624 515,790 OTHER MISCELLANEOUS $124,548 S125,793 3127,051 $128,322 SHOPPED. GOODS/SUBTOTAL $5.411,436 $5,465,550 $5,520_206 $5.575,498 FOOD STORES SUPERMARKETS CONVENIENCE STORES SPECIALTY FOOD STORES EATING & DRINKING ESTABLISHMENTS FULL SERVICE RESTAURANTS LIMITED SERVICE RESTAURANTS SPECIALTY FOOD SERVICE DRINKING PLACES HEALTH & PERSONAL CARE STORES PHARMACIES & DRUG STORES COSMETICS. BEAUTY SUPPLY & PERFUME OPTICAL STORES OTHER HEALTH & PERSONALCARE STORES LIQUOR CONVENIENCE GOODS/SUBTOTAL BUILDING MATERIALS 32,658,576 52,635,162 52,712,013 52.739,134 52.430,432 $2,454,736 $2,479.234 32.504.077 $131,532 $132.847 3134,176 5135,5118 $96,612 337,578 398.554 399.539 $1.801,872 31,319.991 $1.939.090 51.856,471 51,002,204 $1,012,226 51,022.348 31,032.572 $615,756 56'21,914 S829,133 $634,414 5100,104 $101,105 5102.11,5 5103,137 383,808 534,346 535.493 586,347 3978.596 3986.362 3996,226 51,036,188 3765,700 5793.557 3801,493 $809,507 551,216 $51.723 $52,245 $52,763 560.523 561,133 $61.745 562.382 579,152 $79,944 530,743 581550 $65.134 365,336 543,494 367.169 55,502,228 55,557,25.0 55,612.623 65.663.951 5726,336 $733.599 5740.935 5749.345 GoOdkIf ro ]`J1fJ A Strategic Alliance With PRICEWATERHOU'SECOPERS Royal Atlantic / Miami River 13 RESIDENT EXPENDITURES FORECAST, BY MAJOR CATEGORY, ROYAL ATLANTIC PROJECTED 2008 TO 2011 GENERAL MERCHANDISE APPAREL & ACCESSORIES FURNITURE RNIT' RE & HOME EQUIPMENT ELECTRONIC & APPLIANCE STORES SPORTING GOODS. BOOKS & MUSIC STORES MISCELLANEOUS S_G SHOPPER COCOS/SUBTOTAL ;O 'STORES _. T!NG & DRINK NG ESTAB,USHMENTS HEA.L7H 5 . _, .SON 4L CARE STORES L[OU'OR CONVENIENCE GOODS/SUBTOTAL BUILDING MATERIALS OTHER RETAILISUETOTAL TOTAL TOWER 27 CAPTURE GENERAL MERCHANDISE APPAREL & ACCESSORIES FURNITURE & HOME EQUIPMENT ELECTRONIC & APPLIANCE STORES SPORTING GOODS, BOOKS & MUSIC STORES MISCELLANEOUS S-G FOOD STORES EATING & DRINKING ESTABLISHMENTS HEALTH & PERSONAL CARE STORES LIQUOR BUILDING MATERIALS 2008 2009 2010 2011 32.021.868 31.160,508 $641,364 3613.428 3438.323 3535.440 S2.042.087 32.062,508 S2,083.133 $1 72,113 31.133,834 51,195.673 $647.773 3554,255 $660.798 53 3.562 5525 758 3652,015 343.216 .5447,6648 3452.125 33 9.794 3546:202 3551.664 35.4 1,436 35.485_550 33_320.206 33.575.40-8 32.353.578 326 5.162 32.- 2.013 32.739.134 51 301.372 S 1819-591, 3' 336.090 37.856.471 3976,596 3985,362 595,226 31.006,188 365.184 555.336 S66.494 567.159 35 502,228 35,557,250 35.612,523 35.668.951 $726,336 $726,336 S 1 1.640,000 Retention and Sale Inflow Factor 2008 PERCENT SALES INFLOW FROM SECONDARY MARKET & VISITORS S733.599 3740.935 5748.345 $733.599 S740,935 S748,345 S 11 .7566,400 311 873,964 311.992,704 2009 2010 2011 25-0096 25.00% 25-00% 25.0096 40.0096 40.00% 40.00% 40.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.0096 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 40-00% 40.00% 40.00% 40.00% 50-00% 50.00% 50-0696 50.00% 95.00% 95.00% 95.00% 95.0096 75.0096 75.00% 75.00% 75.00% 85.0096 35.00% 85.0096 85.0096 85.00% 85.00% 35-0096 85.00% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 50.0096 GENERAL MERCHANDISE APPAREL & ACCESSORIES FURNITURE & HOME EQUIPMENT ELECTRONIC & APPLIANCE STORES SPORTING GOODS, BOOKS & MUSIC STORES MISCELLANEOUS S-G FOOD STORES EATING & DRINKING ESTABLISHMENTS HEALTH & PERSONAL CARE STORES LIQUOR BUILDING MATERIALS NET SALES POTENTIAL GENERAL MERCHANDISE APPAREL & ACCESSORIES FURNITURE & HOME EQUIPMENT ELECTRONIC & APPLIANCE STORES SPORTING GOODS. BOOKS & MUSIC STORES M1SCELLANEOUS S-G SHOPPER'S GOODS SUBTOTAL FOOD STORES EATING & DRINKING ESTABLISHMENTS HEALTH & PERSONAL CARE STORES LIQUOR CONVENIENCE GOODS SUBTOTAL BUILDING MATERIALS Goodkin©©G^gC::7B ] n 5.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00°,%° 10.00% 10.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10-00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.007c, 10.00% 10.00%n 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 25.0096 25.0096 25.00% 25.00% 50.00% 50.00% 50-0096 50.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5-00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5,00% 20-0096 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% S530,740 S536 048 5541,408 3546.822 $510.524 8515,730 3520.387 3526.006 3211,650 3213.767 S215.904 S218,053 3202.431 3204.456 3206,500 S208.565 3193,084 3195,015 3196.965 3198,935 3294,492 5297.437 S300,411 5303,415 31,943,022 Si 962,452 31.982,076 S2.001,897 S3.157,059 $2.027,106 S871,612 S53.177 33 138,630 S2,047,377 $380,328 558.758 S3,220.516 S2,067.351 3889.131 559,346 $3-252,7211 32,088,529 $898.023 S 59.940 55.113,954 56,175,093 S5.236,344 36,299.213 S435.802 S385.140 S338.991 3392,381 A Strategic Alliance With PRICEW4TERHOUsECWPERS R€wal Atlantic l Miami River 14 RESIDENT EXPENDITURES FORECAST, BY MAJOR CATEGORY, ROYAL ATLANTIC PROJECTED 2008 TO 2011 SALES PER SQUARE FOOT: 2008 2009 2010 2011 GENERAL MERCHANDISE 5227 5227 5227 5227 APPAREL & ACCESSORIES 3290 S2`90 3290 3290 FURNITURE & HOME EQUIPMENT 3227 5227 5227 5227 • ELEOTRCNIC & AP?'_IANCE STORES S200 3 07 200 3200 SPORTING GOODS. SOCKS & MUSIC STORES 3250 3257 5257 525+0 10SCE_L4NEOUS S-G 3420 .. 5420 5420 SHOPPER'S GO-00S AVERAGE S258 $25 3259 325.3 FOOD STORES J422 - S422 S422 5422 EATING &?& DRINKING ESTABLISHMENTS 5375 53 � 5375 3375 HEALTH & PERSONAL CARE STORES 3407 34'7r 5407 $477 LIQUOR 5280 5230 3230 5280 CONVENIENCE GOODS AVERAGE 54fl1 3401 5401 $ 401 BUILDING MATERIALS S115 3115 5115 5115 OVERALL AVERAGE WARRANTED SQUARE FEET: GENERAL MERCHANDISE 2,338 2,361 2,385 2.409 APPAREL & ACCESSORIES 1.761 1,778 1.796 1,814 FURNITURE & HOME EQUIPMENT 932 942 951 961 ELECTRONIC & APPLIANCE STORES 1,012 1,022 1.033 1.043 SPORTING GOODS, BOOKS & MUSIC, STORES 772 780 788 796 MISCELLANEOUS S-G 701 708 715 722 SHOPPER'S GOODS TOTAL 7,517 7,592 7,668 7,745 FOOD STORES 7.481 7,5566 7,632 7,708 EATING & DRINKING ESTABLISHMENTS 5,406 5,460 5.514 5,569 HEALTH & PERSONAL CARE STORES 2,142 2,163 2,185 2,206 LIQUOR 208 210 212 214 CONVENIENCE GOQCS TOTAL 15.236 15.388 15,542 15,698 BUILDING MATERIALS 3,790 3,349 3.383 3,416 TOTAL WARRANTED RETAIL SPACE 26.543 26,330 26 593 26,359 GOOdkln©^liadTESI A Strategec Alliance With JRICli1ATERHOUs CDPERS