Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAboutSubmittal-Commissioner Sarnoff 4�itarn ca >ir, even, in.; states, such. as "Texas;. Okla., "Ark: -and Wis.. that haven"t 'suffered greatly: ret p`i`oiii 2a {, • 'States�wili,demaiad it For most of:tl3e r� stsof tli c ountrv, figure ori a=range citeng a jobless reCover¢y" . of seven to.12 years before prices regain lost ground. "" "' i 1~ DA Dvefaul Risingoblessness makes matters even, worse ,,,%, o �uod safety concerns a. _. trump business costs sp wing"additional foreclosures and shrinking the pool of would-be buyers. The supply of unsold rnew homes Surface Transportation remains high as.w.ell,; at.8.8'months' worth... Huge"reauthorization 'though that's the lowest level since October 2007. swill beput offto 2010 Plus `many sellers remain on the sidelines, holding back ,till, prices rise; When they do, increased supply will, quickly cool_ any heat. i CCXZ U -Y CIIV1 LZ7 -1.V UlUti11V1'GLLVDIii L,D:.,.. WVIi'L tiiV>lllt-.ILil lV-atc.W:, Officials hope .to jawbone" lenders tnto-rriodifying" half a million loans, Nov 1',, Halting foreclosures on them But even::if they°`succeed, many loans"will°g`o bad again. Of, the,rn`6 i#ic' ations. so far,, haif,orily""de ayed the inevitable.. Yawhers,losing homes: By the end•of 20'10. a record -one in six.mortgaees will be in foreclosure: 3'.2 million, by the end of fhis "yea And; `an equal' number of foreclosures next year... three -times the typical annual rate. The heaviest concentrations,.;in°Calif.,-Fla., Ariz. and Nev. But bank actions will also accelerate"in Ill., S C., Ore., Utah; Idaho and flrit. On the plus "side, home foreclosures will begin to ease this year in Mich_, Ohio and°Ind: Defaults .will rise on option adjustable rate mortgages. in 2010 and 2011, as rate resets ;crest on the wave of 2 million 'name your paymenC loans: ' What"'s more,about 30% of all mortgage holders ... a record 15 mullion of them,.... remain underwater; owing more .on their -loans than their homes.,are wbrth. ;Still, at least the end:is in siLyht Both home sales, andhousing starts'' Have turned tl e'corr er. By 20'11,, sales of neu'aiid existing hor€ ""s will "hit`'6 rriiilron or so • again ... riothrg "like the overheated' levei°'of 2iJ05 but .withil,"'the "normal" range; By 2012 or so; single family home starts may climb back to about 1.2 million`a year. And Washington is determined to do what it can, extending the, tax credit for first time buyers and pressing lenders to be as lenient as possible but.prudent. And, the Federal Resene will work to. keep mortgage rates low, around 5..25%. The decline in job layoffs rs=slowrng butjob-seekers still face toug More are aivmi4 up the hunt for employment. That's what caused the jobless rate to decline a bit in July, to 9.4%v. When people people despair of fending a job ?0 Une pkoye i and quit looking, they no longer count as unemployed tss$ , Unedeeremployed and the Jobless rate drops even as payrolls -shrink. 4o3ai,tivorkinrce} Others are being forced into part-time wort ° The`'underemployment rate"...the share ofworkers X10% who, want hall- P�e work. thr e. unable tofind it... is nows5 9°1U tfrom 3.7twhen the recession began. And the .worst is 'et to •come: Businesses won't add ;permanent frill=trine workers until :months, after the economy turns the corner in early 2010.. S vrc¢:BuriauorL Urststcsl Another drop in infrastructure spending :next :year; despite the, likely end of the recession and continued federal stimulus funds.,After a,4.5% decline this year, funding, by federal, state & local governrirents and "others urill dip 1:..5" is or so:i.rt 201.©, with continued cutbacks early next year more than offsetting increases later on. Outla s on..power generation and transmission: will plunge by about :lta%. Utilities are putting projects on hold pending new energyI & climate,chlan.ge legislation. For roads, bridges and .hi hhways....about 5% more spending next year.. Light-rail; subway and otlier transportation projects.:.also up from" 206by about 2%�. Come 201.L _a solid boost. all around as a more vigorous economicpace allows states and cities 'to step up their=.investmeii:ts `and: ,a ndw'-federal highway bill authorizes Uncle, Sarn to fork over about.50% more ;per year than -is`, now the case; To fund some of the iump...expect a 5�' h as tax hike, probably phased in. Meanwhile, little additional relief on Buv American requirements is likeiv when the White House issues its final guidelines for federally funded projects.. yT including state and local undertakings paid for with economic -stimulus funds. Although the law allows contracts with, firms that use ;inputs from Canada:.. or from. any country with a government procurement agreement with the'U.S... ,state and local officials won't cut them any, slack. That's because Canada's ,provinces opted out of the relevant provision in the North American Free Trade .Agreement: Used cars are big sellers these days.. a saving grace for. ca T` dealerships suffering a- drought in new car sales; Even- vi fh the cash for' clunk"ers" program,, new vehicle sales won't: top 10 million this year.. a'third lower than :the recent, norm.- i.wj�-ile, salespickk-u*p;tr ks and,,S�Ji's.ivlii,cl�rrili �*million,to hit), rritlii%n. As you,d expect,,,�rices are up, too ... topping $10;000, average wholesale. And with the much higher profit. margin...l l% on average vs. 4%o for new cars... the mini -boom is providing some much needed relief to hard-pressed dealerships. One industry that's still. strong:.�iideo. aming. The market -for Web based and corisole gdn es, ..$14 billion now..:coritinues to expand at a robust 5% to 6%. What's more,.gamers:are becoming a more dive rse.group ;..no Ionger;just teen boys.. The average gage is 35.,Female garners are 40%fl �of the total ... 44%. of all online gamers. The medium's a rare bright snot in the, advertising world. Game publishers, will benefit from. a 50% increase in ti -.S in; game advertising over the next five years, pushing the market, to the billion -dollar mark...a small but,groi,'ing piece of the ad pie. Take special care in making ocean -cargo. arrangements in coming months. __ Many ocean shipping lines, face their worst financial outlook.in decades... a perfect storm: of recession -weakened demand and a bulge :in shipping capacity.. The risk of bankruptcies and sudden court ordered seizures will be unusually high: Washington is likely to take a tougher line on hedge funds than expected. only a few months ago, It's :a: good bet that a coming _congressional= overhaul of financial. regulations will go further than just requiring registration with the SEC, The White. House wants ;funds" to'disclose .thei.r tradingpos'itions to regulators and• the SEC. :to :po.ke into° hedge funds' activities That would also shard" more light oft banks and other regulated firms by subjecting their dealings with hedge hinds to scrutiny. Banks, for example, often offload some debt to,the private capital groups. Putting a rein on the industry mate hike -the cost of caoital:for.firms, thoudi. Moving operations offshore to the Cayman Islands, Asia or other distant lands where governments are less inclined to look closely will become more appealing. Lawmakers are making.it clear that a new consumer finahcia:l protection agency... to be created as part of a financial regulatory overhaul package likely this fall.... is expected to bar o,r severely limit y a any requirement for .mandatorrbitration iat c©nsu ner credit agreeme.nts_':Some credit card firms have al:readu called;a.ha;lt. to the practice; ;following settlement .of: a -Minn. lawsuit against one.arbitration firm. It's about:to get tougher to become an airline pilot..Congress will insist that would-be fliers rack up more; ccickpit hours and that federal regulators update rules on how, many hours pilots can stay on duty between rest periods. f7(Lb[wmbLk&,9 atswoldn:.tb gives cdtrieftV* btv'aCvess to ft,"66Ms. Neither the airline industry nor theF ederal" tiviation Admin. wants a new lay. Both claim changes already under way are enough to improve safety in the skies. But lawmakers aren't budging. They're serious about pilot competence. A. billion dollars :to buy and install new explosive defectionsysteins°for checked bags and advanced ,•screening equipment at security checkpoints will"stait.-paying",off by theend of next year. X-ray machines that ;allow multiple: views. of -carry-6'n contents mean .fewer hand examinations of suspicious items. Plus .improvements in software will allow detection of.liquid and gel explosives; so :the ban: on liquids. could be lifted. More airports will get machines that. letsecurityworkers .more easily rule out bombs in checked bags, helping to keep baggage moving and cutting; odds ,of evacuations. But passengers will still have to shed their shoes. New technology flopped. And whole body scanners are still. in limited use,. The idea of'letting screeners. see your body outline through your skivvies is controversial. Down the road, technologythat produces a. less"" revealing stick figure inage .will ease privacy concern's. Suddenly -things are lookin',. ��.,i.Jittle,bettei.forthel.pularitGOP's 20,10 election ho Not good, mind you, but better. Why? Obaina's slipping popularity, I I y, Voters are increasingly unhappy with how Democrats are handling the, economy, and theyre especially—nervous, about pl4ps for overhauling the health care system. History is also on the Republican side. When a party controls both the White `House and Congress, it usually suffers at least some losses in midterm House elections. Most vulnerable: Democratic freshmen in the House who beat GOPers in swing districts. They're caught trying to walk a middle line between Obama, whom they want to support, and his policies; which are unpopular'with Some voters. depending on the .economy—not a big dent in the, Democrats'.current 7.9 -seat -margin. Republicans also have an outside chance for anet gain in the'Senate. They now hold 40 seats and need at least one more to stage a filibuster, the most potent tool to delay or.kill legislation and judicial or other appointments; Democratic seats in 111. and Cot -in. are ripe for capture. In'.111., Obama's old seat is up for grabs, and GOP Rep, Mark Kirk will be a stro rig, candidate. In Conn., Sen. Chris Dodd faces the fight of his 36 -year career. His poll numbers i have plummeted, eted, and he trails his likely opponent, former Rep. Rob Simmons. Dodd is accused of getting too cozy with h big bankers and Wall Street. -players and criticized for getting: easy m6itgage'lermg. from Countrywide; He's,` also takffigheat for.moving,-his family to Iowa in late,2001during his unsuccessful fun for president, Democrat's still. hone to nab some..GOP slots, but, odds,are;llenathenimv, Two GOP seats that once looked very vulne,rable...in Fla. and ,Ky_iow seem less so. Florida Gov. Charlie:Crist's decision to seek the seat of retiring Sen: Mel Martinez means it will likely stay Republican. And the decision by GOP Sell, Jim Bunning not to seek reelection in Ky..next year actually boosts his party's prospects. Bunning was almost certain to. lose in what is noirnally a reliably red state. Renu_blicq s face tou2JJ2.,fiZhtsin Mo.-N.H. and Ohio, all states where Republicans are retiring. Obama, won N.H. and Ohio and just, missed in Mo.; I Obama will begin a push for fresh sanctions against -Iran next month, ' hoping to. force it to back off its attempt to acquire ,nuclear" *eapons. Congress is, eager to make the move.: Getting, other.nations to agree.is another story. The focus:' Penalizing firms that sell refined petroleum; -products to Iran. Iran has huge reserves .but limited refining capacity and imports n.w6h*cif` its gasoline. Effective sanctions would force tighter rationing of fuel, higlier prices. or both. But... If EUM56. RiAggi4, t-hina 6:hd IfidiA dbfi?t a1§6 get tbugh, the :plait Wbh'i *b And though the Iranian regime is in trouble at home, any•perception,,tilatsanctions pushed by'the U,S. were hurting ordinary Iranians would work, to Tehran's advantage. Obarna has little chdice-thoug . Pressure for action is building "in Congress in both parties. More,over, though Israel is refraining from apreemptive strike, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu'sgovernment won't. wait inde'Liitelv, The longer the U.S. holds back, the greater the .chances that Israel- will act alone. Yours very trul' Yours Aug. 7, .2009 THE N I GER)�'A INET _E DITORS P.S. Are you asking your employees to do more work with fewer resources? Our 90 -minute audio conference on Sept. 3 can help you, prevent burnout and keep motivation high. Register at wtvw.krm.com1kiphn_qer or call 800..775-,7654.