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HomeMy WebLinkAboutR-85-0631R �F RESOLUTION NOrw ""fiai A RESOLUTION AUTHORIZING THE CITY MANAGER TO EXECUTE AN AGREEMENT IN A FORM ACCEPTABLE TO THE CITY ATTORNEY WITH HAMMER. SILERs GEORGE ASSOCIATES, FOR A FEE NOT TO EXCEED $43,640 TO PREPARE AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND GROWTH PROJECTIONS FOR THE PROPOSED DOWNTOWN DEVELOPMENT PLAN AND DRI APPLICATION, WHICH INCORPORATES THE PRINCIPAL FACTORS IN THE ATTACHED PROPOSAL DATED APRIL 309 19851r WITH FUNDS THEREFOR TO BE EXPENDED FROM FY 184-185 SPECIAL PROGRAMS AND ACCOUNTS. WHEREASs by Resolution No. 85-2081 dated February 289 1985, the City Commission authorized procedures necessary to obtain professional services to assist in the preparation of a comprehensive Downtown Development Plan and an Application for Development Approval for downtown as a Development of Regional Impact, and further instructing the City Manager to identify the sources of $400,00 in funds and for said project; and WHEREAS, the fee of $43,640 recommended for consultant services to prepare an economic analysis and growth projections has been budgeted within the total amount of $1509000 earmarked from Special Programs and Accounts to cover project costs during FY 184-185; and WHEREAS, the City has advertised publicly for consultant proposals to prepare an economic analysis and growth projections for said project, and a nine member selection committee established by the City Manager has evaluated all eligible proposals according to criteria set forth in the Request for Proposals; and WHEREAS, the selection committee has personally interviewed consultants who submitted the four top rated proposals and ranked said proposals as follows: 1) Hammer, Siler, George Associates, 2) Real. Estate Research Corporation, 3) AB2MT, 4) Coopers and Lybrand; and WHEREAS, the proposal submitted by hammer, Siler, George Associates provides the highest quality professional services available to the City at a reasonable cost; CITY COMMISSION MEETING OF JUN 13 1985 .W IUD nu. 85-631 RKS. #t 0 t4OVI THtREFORt4 tt IT HgoLVED BY THE COM1418SION OF THE CITY OF MIAMI, FLORIDA: 2tttioh 1. The City Manager is hereby auth6fi2td to enter into an agreement$ in a form acceptable to the City Attorney, with liarnmerg Siierf George Associates* for a fee not to exceed $43,640# to prepare an economic analysis and growth projections for the proposed Downtown Development Plan and Development of Regional impact application, which incorporates the principal factors in the attached proposal, dated April 30, 1985, with the additional stipulation that Ms. Kimberly Parker, attorney with offices at 1865 Brickell Avenue, shall perform the land valuation analysis as a subconsultant to Hammer, Silerg George Associates. Section 2. Funds therefor shall be expended from FY 184- 185 Special Programs and Accounts. PASSED AND ADOPTED this 13th_ day of June - ATTEST: Opp Ralf h G. Ongie , City CMrk PREPARED AND APPROVED BY: Assistant City Attorney APPRO AS TO FORM AND CORRECTNESS: Mcia Doughdety ....... .... City Attorney Maurice A. Ferre MAURICE A. FERREO MAYOR 85-631 i z - Cl" OP MIAMI. PLORIbA ' INUR-01PINhE MCMbfiANl'ilJhii 59 �.�' J U N 5 ims The Honorable Mayan and Members DATE: of the City Commission SUBJECT: Economic Consultant - Downtown Plan and DRI ' RAW At0tkENCEs: Sergio Perei a City Commission Meeting City Manager ENCLOSURES: of June 13, 1985 It is recommended that the Commission adopt the attached resolution authorizing the City Manager to execute an agreement, in a form acceptable to the City Attorney, with Hammer, Siler, George and Associates, for a fee not to exceed $432b.0� , to prepare an economic analysis and growth projections for the proposed Downtown Development s Plan and Development of Regional Impact (DRI) application, which incorporates the principal features in the attached - proposal, dated April 30, 1985, with the stipulation that Ms. Kimberly Parker, attorney with offices at 1865 Brickell Avenue, shall perform the land valuation analysis as a subconsultant to Hammer, Siler, George fw - Associates; and with funds N therefore to be expended from FY - 185 Special Program and Accounts. T Consultant Selection Process On April 15, 1985, the City advertised publicly for proposals from economic consultants to prepare an economic analysis and growth projections for the proposed Downtown Development Plan and Development of Regional Impact (DRI) application. A total of seven proposals were received; one was disqualified for not meeting the submission deadline of 5:00 PM, May 1, 1985. A nine -member selection committee met on May 6, 1985 to review the submissions and short- listed four proposals for oral presentations and interviews. The A _ Page 1 of 3 r r 85—b31 0 ok The honorable Mayor and Members of the City Commission interviews were held on May 13, 1985, following whioh, the Committee Compiled the following ranking! 1. Hammer, Siler, George Associates 2. Real Estate Research Corporation 3. AB MT 4. Co8pers and Lybrand Evaluation The following criteria and percentage weights were published in the Request for Proposals and utilized by the selection committee to rate individual proposals and compile the final ranking. 20% A. Proposed Methodology for Growth Projections 15% B. Familiarity with Local Economic Conditions 15% C. Qualifications and Experience of Individuals Assigned to the Project 10% D. Experience in Similar Projects 10% E. Overall Experience and Reputation of Firm 10% F. Minority Participation 20% G. Proposed Fee for Services Requested by the City Hammer, Siler, George Associates was ranked first by the selection committee for the following reasons: a. their proposed methodology was considered the most thoughtful and suitable approach to the project. b. the firm has an excellent reputation and proven performance record, a crucial consideration due to the brief ninety day deadline for completion of the study. c. George Dengler and Cliff Henry, who would be responsible for this project, have previously conducted market studies for special projects by the City of Miami including Southeast Overtown Park West, Dinner Key Master Plan, and the Civic Center. Thus, they bring to the project a familiarity with the local market and an existing base of information that saves time and cost to the City. This factor outweighs the fact that their office is located in Silver Spring, Md. d. their proposed fee of $43,646 was the best deal for the City, based upon comparable services offered by other consultants. U I #% 0 The Honorable Mayor and Members of the City► commission Minority Particibation The recommended consultant, Hammer, Siler, George Associates is not a minority owned firm; however two of the four individuals who will perform the work on this project are black. This includes Mr. Cliff Henry who is a Vice President and stockholder in the firm. In addition, Hammer, Siler, George Associates is committed to subcontract the portion of the work program related to land value analysis to Ms. Kimberly Parker, a local black attorney, with offices at 1865 Brickell Avenue. Selection Committee Members Joseph W. McManus, Asst. Director, Planning Department David Whittington, Chief of General Planning, Planning Department Joyce Meyers, Project Manager, Planning Department Annette DeLara, Supervisor of Economic Research, Finance Department Adam Lukin, Downtown Development Authority Dr. Charles Blowers, Dade County Planning Department J. Antonio Villamil, Senior Vice President and Economist, Southeast Bank, N.A. Peter Clark, President, Clark -Biondi Realtors Thomas Patrick, Coldwell Banker Commercial Realtors - (did not attend) SP/SR/JAM Page of Q Sri-w'lt #4 0 f t f A WA., '4�i" i1. tq 37r­ 17 8.2 A PROPOSAL FOR ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND GRFFWTH PROJECTIONS it FOR CITY OF MIAMI DOWNTOWNDEVELOPMENTPKFN AND DRI 4" A #4 t. ' t t'..' � PepfA City of Miami Planning Department f-A NO1 it-rimv* 44 it Well At It W." 41 I't -1985 il, 11 f.; April '30 t44 4j 4 Tf A H A'M M. C-1 A T E E R S I L I R G E 0 R G E A S S '-,,,,�:�','.-.�,'!;--?,,rAtlanta/Denver/Silver Spr'ing/Washinigton , i ... � "s 0 1111 Bonifant Street — 4'*��Silver Spring, Maryland "'20910 L`-. kt. ,r•'(ck•J.'�, . !hsl+,+ •�S•r fC,.•r..', y • .', `;5i�! f�� b ,tr+l� RRRGa.../; ' t . 4a+i , -{ •�/_��.. r �i `: tj ;..j, Ire,, 4_4 AL 85-631L j RL 77 14AMMEAt 81LER, GEORGE ASSOC IATItS E G r, N, 0 10 C A N 0 D r E_ r 4.4 E N S 3 0 N 7 .. 'J , 1111 E�OhMNt $l►Nt WOW 00(i , Ma YWW 2W16 I' April 30, 1985 r Mr. Sergio Rodriguez ( Director City of Miami Planning Department 275 NW 2nd Street f Miami, Florida 33233-0708 y, Dear Mr. Rodriguez: Hammer, Siler, George Associates is pleased to submit this proposal to prepare economic and growth projections for downtown Miami. ` It is our understanding that this work will provide the basis for the E development of a comprehensive development plan for the year 2005 and an Application for Development Approval for Downtown as a Development of Regional Impact pursuant to Chapter 380.06 of the Florida Statutes. r We believe that previous assignments undertaken by us for the City of Miami uniquely qualifies us for this assignment. These prior assignments have included the Miami Civic Center Area Study in which we assisted the city planning staff in analyzing the development potential for specific land parcels. A 200-room Days Inn and a branch bank have been constructed to date. Medical offices and residential developments are also expected to be developed in the area. In the Southeast Overtown/Park West assignment Hammer, Siler, George Associates con- ducted an economic analysis of the market potential for residential, ` office, retail, and hotel development within this 200 acre area. In this assignment we also conducted a land value analysis and provided the economic analysis for the development of regional impact. HSGA also served as the economic consultant on the team of Bermello, Kurki and L Vera, Inc., to update the Dinner Key Plan. Our role was to evaluate the potential of the Dinner Key Area for expanded marina and retail activi- ties and to make recommendations with respect City lease negotiations with private entrepreneurs in the area. We have conducted several other private studies in downtown Miami in recent years. try ATLANTA*QENYER99RLAN009$1L'/ER 85- 31 AL Mr. Sergio Rodriguez Page 2 Each of these assignments required an understanding of the Dade County economy and projecting the share of County growth that could be Captured by the City. Each also involved projecting the distribution of City growth between downtown and other locations within the City. This background provides us with the fundamentals required to understand the dynamics of this assignment. At the same time, we recognize that Miami is an international city with substantial economic linkages to Latin America and the Caribbean. This reality requires an understanding of the economic conditions prevailing in Latin America and their potential impact on development trends within the City of Miami. It is for this reason that our approach would be to conduct a rigorous analysis for the periods 1985-1990 and 1990 and 1995 but with a lessor effort for the period 1995-2000 and 2000 to 20005. Projections would be made for the entire period, but the plan should be continually monitored and updated following the 1990 census. In our approach, we will designate the Omni Area as Subsector A; Southeast Overtown/Park West as Subsector B; the Central Business District as Subsector C; and the Brickell area as Subsector D. Each subsector will also be analyzed and projections made for areas which are within the Downtown Development Authority boundaries and also for areas outside of the DDA boundaries which make up the Development of Regional Impact Study Area. LStaffing of the Assignment I will serve as Project Director of this assignment and will be assisted by Clifton Henry, also a Vice President of the firm. My experience in Miami includes serving as the Project Director for the Civic Center Area Study and conducting the office and retail analysis for the Southeast Overtown/Park West Study. In addition to these activities I have work for the private sector on the Omni Center and the L Southeast Bank Center in the downtown. I have also undertaken other studies for private developers in Dade County. LMr. Henry has also directed a number of studies for the firm in Miami including the Southeast Overtown/ Park West Study, the Dinner Key Study, the Model Cities Transit Corridor Study and the economic analysis Lfor the Economic Adjustment Study. We will be joined by Patricia Thornton -Beach and Catherine Brown. Both are Associates of the firm who will serve as research assistants. L Both have assisted me on similar assignments undertaken by the firm. All of our resumes have been included in this proposal and a breakdown of our hours has been provided, among other items, following the work scope presentation. i'd'S '•�:'.: AL Mr. Sergio Rodriguez April 30, 1985 page 3 Organizational Structure Hammer, Siler, George Associates Inc. is a privately held corporation which has been in business for over 30 years. Mr. Robert Siler is the President, and his home address is 601 G Street S.W., Washington, D.C., 200024; the Executive Vice President is Mr. Vernon George, and his home address is 1038 Dead Run Drive, McLean, Virginia, f 22101. On this assignment, principals also include Mr. Clifton W. Henry whose home address is 9524 Linden Avenue, Bethesda, Maryland 20814; and myself, George Dengler, Vice President, residing at 224 West Lanvale Street, Baltimore, Maryland 21217. Experience and Qualifications _ A special section on our corporate experience and project experience relevant to this assignment has been included at the end of ` the proposal. Resumes of staff assigned. to this work have also been L included in this section. Minority Participation Hammer, Siler, George Associates is an equal opportunity employer with a stated policy of nondiscrimination because of age, race, creed, color, religion, sex, or national origin. Three of the four staff members assigned to this work are minorities and/or women. In addition, as noted above Mr. Henry is also a principal and stockholder in the L firm. In addition, Hammer, Siler, George has made it a policy to work with minority firms of complementary disciplines. In Miami, the firm has worked with Bermello, Kurki, and Vera, Inc., and Ronald Frazier and Associates. LProposed Methodology, Fee for Services, and Task Time Schedule f Our proposed methodology has been incorporated in the scope of L work which can be found in a separate section of this proposal. Our projected fee for services rendered can be found in the budget section L of the report, and a task time schedule can be found immediately following the scope of work. Office Location LAll work on this assignment will be conducted from our headquarters office located at 1111 Bonifant Street, Silver Spring, Maryland 20910. All staff assigned to this work are located in the headquarters office. N 50 Mr. Sergio Rodriguez April 30. 1985 Page 4 We appreciate the opportunity to respond to this RFP and look Should forward to working for the City of Miami again. you require additional information, please let me know and I will forward it to you immediately. Sincerely, Georgeengler!/� Vice President j t GOJrJm L L y _ ! gY L r f f T. 1. . Ak> 3, L a%..vrt yr wumr% 4;= S' 3" inHAMMER, SILER, GEORGE ASSOCIATES • ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CONSULTANTS AATLANTA• DENVER • ORLANDO • SILVER SPRING • WASHINGTON �i 0 I L L L L IS AND GROWTH PROJECTIONS FOR CITY OF SCOPE OF WORK I. Market Analysis The market analysis work will draw upon and test projections made by DDA and the City of Miami Planning Department to 2005. It will also draw upon a data base established through our recent work in Miami. These and other studies and documents will be reviewed and updated based on independent field research and data collection. The work to be accomplished under this task is described in detail following. A. Office 1. Comp�titive Framework. A survey of existing general tenant Billdings downtown and by Sectors), office park facilities, and major freestanding general tenant buildings in the region will be made. The inventory will include building size, occupancy level, general tenant composition, rent structure, and quality rating. A profile will be obtained which will indicate operating experiences and differences in market orientation between downtown (and its Sectors) and the suburbs. We will draw upon our office work for the Southeast Overtown/ Park West project and from other recent work in southeast Florida for undertaking the inventory. This will be supple- mented by interviews with commercial office realtors, BOMA, building managers and others knowledgeable about the current Miami office market. 2. Trends. The trends in the development and absorption of general tenant office space in the market area over the past 10 years will be examined based upon municipal records and inter- views with owners and realtors. The analysis will include the absorption rate of office space by location, tenant types, and rent levels. As -part of the trends analysis, we will also inventory the absorption of government and regional/headquarters office space during the same time period. u "ON 14,611111,010409 A$8001ATIa t1 I =_ a f ti t T 7 3 i i 4�+ i L L L L L L L L' 3+ Future Development Potentials. The role of the CBD in the uture regional general tenant market will be forecast based on projected employment by industry groupings for the Miami region and the anticipated competitive position of downtown within the region. These evaluations will be based on past office space development and absorption trends in downtown and in the suburbs as well as trends in office sector employment as a + share of total regional employment growth. Replacement office space needs will also be considered as part of this task. Based on these analyses, conclusions and recommendations will be made as to the amount, type, rent structure, and timing of new general tenant office development which can be developed downtown by 1.990, 1995, 2000 and 2005. In turn, the accommoda- tion of the overall general tenant office space demand in Sectors A, B, C and D will be evaluated and estimated by the Consultant for the same study years above. Future corporate office space needs are based primarily on corporate decisions rather than market analysis. Based on discussions with key corporate leaders concerning their future needs and expansion plans, we will estimate the amount of corporate (including regional or branch office) office space that can be accommodated in downtown Miami by Sectors (A,B, C and D) by 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005. B. Retail/Services The Consultant will evaluate the potential for new retail and services space for the CBD and the four subsectors. We will draw upon our experience in several private downtown projects in recent years as well as the Southeast Overtown/Park West experience. These data will be updated and projected into the future. Future retail potential will be projected for shoppers goods, convenience goods and business/personal services categories. The opportunities for future retail potential will be generated by the residential trade area, downtown employment, and other user groups -2- - -- MAN ago.$#to6,01tool 4106016118 8531 i t I L L L L L L� [a 3. Future Development Potentials. The role of the CBD in the uture regional general tenant market will be forecast based on projected employment by industry groupings for the Miami region and the anticipated competitive position of downtown within the region. These evaluations will be based on past office space development and absorption trends in downtown and in the suburbs as well as trends in office sector employment as a + share of total regional employment growth. Replacement office space needs will also be considered as part of this task. Based on these analyses, conclusions and recommendations will be made as to the amount, type, rent structure, and timing of new general tenant office development which can be developed downtown by 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005. 1n turn, the accommoda- tion of the overall general tenant office space demand in Sectors A, B, C and D will be evaluated and estimated by the Consultant for the same study years above. Future corporate office space needs are based primarily on corporate decisions rather than market analysis. Based on discussions with key corporate leaders concerning their future needs and expansion plans, we will estimate the amount of corporate (including regional or branch office) office space that can be accommodated in downtown Miami by Sectors (A,B, C and D) by 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005. B. Retail/Services The Consultant will evaluate the potential for new retail and services space for the CBD and the four subsectors. We will draw upon our experience in several private downtown projects in recent years as well as the Southeast Overtown/Park West experience. These data will be updated and projected into the future. Future retail potential will be projected for shoppers goods, convenience goods and business/personal services categories. The opportunities for future retail potential will be generated by the residential trade area, downtown employment, and other user groups -2- �� MAMMtR,R14tR,��aR�T ARiQC1ATiR 85 if 1 r L(k.^. j :`.: t` L I L a� 7 (conventioneers, tourists, business visitors etc.). Steps 3n the process of defining these opportunities include: 1. Market Sources. Define the residential trade area (possibly primary and secondary subzones) attributable to CBD retailing and estimate the future population, households and household income levels of the trade area for 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005. Project downtown employment for the same years above. Projected annual convention delegates, tourists and business visitors to downtown for the same study years above. 2. Project Expenditure Potentials. The retail expenditure potential for each of these sources will be projected by retail categories and type of stores for the study years. The shoppers goods category will be subdivided into apparel, furniture/home furnishings, and miscellaneous (gift, jewelry, book, toy and hobby, etc.) units. The convenience goods category will be subdivided into food, drug, eating/drinking, hardware, florists, etc, units. Business/personal services includes travel agents, photographers, cleaners, repair shops and others. The expenditure projection for the trade area residents will be based on discernible national and state income -retail expendi- ture trends. The expenditures for downtown employees will be based on local information, if available, or on data the Consultant has compiled in surveys in other major cities. The expenditures for the visitors will be based either on local data supplied by convention and hotel people or national averages. The expenditure potentials generated for each retail category represent the total amounts available to be captured by retailers not only in the CBD, but at all other locations in the Miami region as well. 3. Com etitive Evaluation. As a measure for determining the type an amount of new retailing that can be successfully developed downtown, the existing and known future retail infrastructure must be evaluated for its effectiveness in fulfilling consumer needs today and in the future. Accordingly, we will inventory retail concentrations and modes in the CBD by locations, store -3- ���� M1MAItO.O1�ia.$$call AOOOOIATIS 85-631 0 i t L IL e ok� types, and densities. We will competitively evaluate existing and planned retail store's mix, merchandising, layout, and quality attributes. We will estimate existing sales by store type. In carrying out this task we will conduct merchant interviews with different types of operations at several locations throuahout the CBD. We will also inventory and evaluate major shopping centers in the Miami area which compete with downtown for a share of trade area expenditure potential. 4. Project Retail Potential. Based on a close evaluation of market sources, the generated potentials from those sources, the strength of the existing and developing retail infrastruc- ture, we will project the sales potential available to new retailers in the CBD for the study years. These sales poten- tials will be converted to warranted gross leasable area of floor space based on acceptable industry standards of sales per square foot/floor area relationships for new retail space. Special attention will be given here to identifying the likely types of retailing to be realized in Sections A, B, C, and D, respectively. The gross square footage of retail space will be estimated by major store type categories for each subsector. C. Hotels In this Task the Consultant will evaluate the potential for new hotel construction for the CBD and its subsectors. Our work on the Civic Center and Southeast Overtown/Park West projects will provide basic data which will then be updated and expanded. Tasks to be performed in this assignment include: e 1. Competitive Framework. An analysis of the major competitive existing transient accommodations will be made and these facilities will be grouped by downtown and appropriate suburban locations. The market factors to be considered in the analysis will include number of rooms, occupancy levels, rate structure, amenities offered and market support base (commercial, tourist/ convention, highway traveler, etc.). Basic information on market trends will come from our recent work experience. The -4- MANNER,$$L1A,!!!N!E AS!lOIATE! S5-531. i 1 i L L 9FA updating of this information will be obtained through secondary local hotel industry sources and selected hotel management interviews. The competitive analysis will take into consideration planned new transient facilities. 2. Forecast Demand. The market will be broken into sectors, including: the commercial market relating to area businesses; visitors and tourists; delegates attending conventions, conferences, seminars and training sessions; and pass -through transients. Each of these sectors will be forecast. Commer- cial demand projections are tied to future employment ratios; visitors and tourists, to population and tourist attractions/ attendance data; delegates, to future convention activity bookings and estimates. The information necessary to make these projections will come from public agency estimates (e.g., employment), Chamber of Commerce data, and interviews with convention bureau personnel, highway officials and hotel personnel, among others. Projections of future hotel room demand will be the product of estimates of future additional hotel room nights by sources at assumed operating levels and indicated replacement room demand based on obsolescence of part of the existing inventory. The projections will be for the years 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005. 3. Hotel Development Potential. Based upon the forecast of additional new and replacement hotel room demand in the overall Miami hotel market and the anticipated competitive position of downtown to accommodate the various levels (or consumer sources) of demand, we will estimate the total number of new rooms that could be supported downtown and in Sectors A, B, C and D for the study years above. The recommendations will include the number, size and types of facilities to be developed in response to the characteristics of the market, and the timing of development by Sectors. D. Residential The Consultant shall evaluate the potential for new residential construction for the entire CBD and for Sectors A,B, C and D. The tasks involved here include: -5- � NANNlII.11IL18.61eIIII[ ANIIO21ATE A 85-631 M r r F L 2J - va� 1. Analyze Regional Housing Trends. We will evaluate housing market trends in the Miami region based on 1970 and 1980 Census information, building permit data, and other information from public agencies. We will project regional housing demand by type and price for 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005. In performing this Task we will update the considerable housing research we undertook as part of the Overtown/Park West project in October 1983. 2. Analyze City Housing Trends. We will examine the dynamics of the housing market in the City of Miami using 1970-1980 Census data, data from our 1983 Southeast Overtown/Park West report, building permit data, other current data from local agencies and interviews with local realtors and data from MLS. From ;.his we will determine the nature and strength of current housing demand downtown and in other parts of the City as reflected in sales and vacancy ratios. We will characterize the areas where significant housing demand exists and indicate the market and/or social factors influencing that demand. We will also identify, characterize and evaluate the market performance of new housing constructed in the City over the past three years. 3. Competitive A�na_l, ski s_. We will inventory and evaluate all competitive rental and sales housing in the downcown study area (and its subsectors) and in competitive locations elsewhere from available data or field surveys. We will characterize the demand for housing in the downtown area over the past five (5) years by number, type, rental or prices, rental or buyer characteristics, amenities, and vacancy trends. This task also provides information on the recent annual absorption rate of downtown units by type and rental/sales price range. This analysis will be based on MLS or other sources of sales transactions, interviews with local realtors and lenders, newspaper ads, and any surveys which might have been undertaken as part of recent studies. We will identify new housing proposals that will be competitive for the downtown market. 4. Downtown Housing Demand Potential. Within the framework of the regional market demand projections, we will estimate the poten- tial demand for downtown sales and rental housing for 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005 by number, unit mix, size, rental/price ranges. We will also identify the amenities required for -6- MAMMfA,011ln'ofpool A98401&III j'. :i r 85-631 ti r A F i L i L I L I I market acceptance of downtown housing, including commercial, entertainment/recreational facilities, and so forth. The projections above will be for the CBD and for Sectors A, 8, C, and D. E. Entertainment/Recreation Entertainment/recreation is defined here to mean activities other than retailing which will draw people to the CBD during evening hours. Included would be legitimate theatres, movie theatres, restaurants, niqht clubs and other commercial recreational activities. Support for these activities would come from a primary and regional trade area residential base and from visitors, especially those housed in downtown hotels. The steps in conducting this analysis include: 1. Market Sources. Define the primary and regional residential trade areas attributable to downtown entertainment and estimate the future population, households, and household income levels of the trade areas for 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005. Project downtown visitor days generated by existing and future hotels at assumed occupancy levels and persons per room. These projections will be separated into convention, tourist and business visitors because of differing persons per room and daily expenditure characteristics of these groups. Data to be used in performing this task will be derived from interviews and discussions with local hotel and convention officials. 2. Project Expenditure Potentials. The entertainment expenditure potentials for each source above will be projected for the study years 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005. The expenditures generated by the trade area residents will be based on discer- nible national and state income -entertainment expenditure relationships. The expenditures generated by visitors will be separated by convention delegates, tourist and business visitors and based either on local information available through the Convention Bureau and hotels, information available to the Consultant through other surveys, or national averages depending on the availability of data. Visitor eating/drinking -1- IIAMMIG-90�10,01tool A000014TE0 " 85--631 ON SL i _ t �r 1 expenditures will be separated into those spent in hotels and outside hotels (the latter being the overa7 potential available to a new entertainment complex). The expenditure potentials generated for each entertainment category represent the total amounts available to be captured by facilities not only downtown but at other appropriate locations in the Miami region as well. 3. Competitive Evaluation. We will inventory legitimate theatres, concert halls, movie theatres, night clubs, and other major recreational facilities now or contemplated to compete for future entertainment dollars. Though interviews with manage- ments we will ascertain audience support sources and gather an operating profile on these facilities. This task will also assist the Consultant in determining what entertainment facilities are adequately not adequately developed in downtown Miami. 4. Project Mall Entertainment/Recreation Potential. Projections will be made based on a close evaluation of market sources,•the generated sales potential from these sources, the type and relative success of entertainment facilities downtown, and an overall evaluation of the extent and appeal of similar suburban entertainment facilities. We will project the sales potential available to new entertainment/recreation facilities in the CBD for the study years 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005. These sales potentials will be converted to warranted floor area or seats or other appropriate measurement based on acceptable industry standards of sales/ physical development relationships. The recommendations will distinguish between and dimension various entertainment facilities that should be considered for future development (theaters, night clubs, restaurants, etc.) and what minimum mix and density might be required in order to ensure the successful development of any particular complex. The future projections here will be for the CBD and for its subsectors. F. Wholesale and Industrial In this section, the Consultant will evaluate the potential demand for wholesaling and industrial land within the CBD and its subsectors. 00 AM00 1a1$0taa1610001 A a 5 $ 0 1 A T 9 $ 85 -631 y U Y q a L L The basic approach will be to determine the extent of current whole- saling and industrial land demands, if any, in central Miami locations, how competitive land in the area is for that market, and to project the probable absorption rate for such land for the study years. Specific work tasks will include: 1. Assess Wholesaling/Industrial Trends. We will assess trends generally within the metropolitan area and the CBD based on employment data, land use trends, industrial development activity as recorded by local agencies, and interviews with local industrial realtors. 2. Competition. An analysis of the principal wholesaling/ industrial districts in the region will be undertaken. The survey will include the amount of available land in each zoned and ready for development, and the price. We will seek to determine sales and development activity at each location for the past three years. 3. Project Wholesaling/Industrial Land Absorption Potential. Projection will be made of the demand for wholesaling/ industrial land in the Miami CBD and its subsectors in acres for 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005, taking into account the level and character of metropolitan market demands and the competition for that market. G. Employment and Residents Once the market analysis for downtown land uses in completed, the results will be used to assist the Consultant in projecting future levels of employment by major categories (i.e., office, retail, manufacturing, etc.) and population (residents). The increases in these demographic indices resulting from projected development will be evaluated against existing estimates of CBD employment and population. NANNi0,E0&1Nre1cool Al100IATEt 85-631 AL t f l F L L L L L L L C This task will Culminate in a projection of employment and residential population levels in the C50 and its subareas for 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005. II. Analysis of Land Values The Consultant will analyze existing land values in the CBD and recent trends in these values. The analysis will culminate in a projected growth in assessed property values (land and improvements) for the target study years (1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005). This task will include: 1. Interview the local tax assessor. 2. Interview local realtors knowledgeable of CBD land values, offerings and recent transactions. 3. Analyze data from the tax appraisors file. A second work component will be to assess current and project future market values for land in various locations for the aforemen- tioned target years. In approaching this task, the CBD and its sub - sectors will be divided into geographic "market areas" reflecting general land values in a designated area ($20 square foot. . . $100 square foot, etc.) and projections will be made of future changes in these values based on anticipated development trends and other economic forces at work in the designated areas. III. Developing Em oyment and Economic Characteristics Tor —the Deve opment of RegionsImpact R This task in the scope addresses the need to develop information required in the Application for Development Approval downtown as defined -10- Hall met's0►101Y*Apilot AS1914&1A8 it �C fl iI �f f L L i L L L L e by the Development of Regional Impact pursuant to Chapter 380.06 of the Florida Statues. Question 20 of the application requires specific economic impact analysis of either the proposed project or plan relating to construction cost and expenditure distributions, construction employment, projections of full-time equivalent employment with wage or salary distributions, the extent of existing economic activity on the site or within the planning area, public sector financing requirements and sources of funds, and market area data by both project sector and the phasing of the project. The development of a realistic response requires both a sound assessment of the market and probable absorption levels for types of land uses, and also requires the formulation of an accurate set of assumptions relating to construction cost by use type, the distribution percentages for development cost dollars, and the number of construction jobs generated by square foot of construction or by dollar volume of construction. In addition it requires the development of a realistic set of assumptions relating to permanent full-time equivalent jobs at project build out or by phase if applicable. Our approach would be to review the assumptions formulated for the Southeast Overtown/Park West Project in light of current market factors to determine what modifications, if any, should be made in those assump- tions. We would also review the assumptions utilized in developing the calculations for the Government Center DRI application. Following these reviews, we would reformulate any assumption which required changing due to changes in the market or the type of development projects expected to'be put into place. -11- ---. _ __ __._. MAMMEII,fItE11.�EC11�E 1ii/QIAlE; a5-631- i YA , ' x � FW� x. ��4 r i ; 53' r Your RFP indicates that this assignment will only require the completion of Tables 20.1,20.2,20.5, 20.6 and Figure 20.1. We therefore assume that the missing tables which include those not identified through 20.11 will not be required in the application process. Once the assumptions have been established for the appropriate impact data the calculations will be run by personal computer using the development program projected and assumptions jointly agreed upon by Consultant and Client. _ _. --_ _. _._ NAAIMtN�i1bEN.��CNIi AifNQ1AfE! t. {{ F` t f t tit.. ,r r - w , k d Nor Vnow Mmm ■ HAMMER, SILER, GEORGE ASSOCIATES ECONOMIC& DEVELOPMENT CONSULTANTS ATLANTA • DENVER • ORLANDO • SILVER SPRING • WASHINGTON J P PROR E0 STUDY BUDGET M A. La�or II Market Analysis Mice B. Retail/Services C. Hotel D. Residential E. Entertainment/Recreation F. Wholesale/Industrial G. Employment/Population II, Analysis of Land Values III. DRI Subtotal B. Meetings eetings/Presentations Subtotal C. Expenses Six Trips @ $700 Report Production, Telephone, Xerox, Etc. Total Budget 80 96 112 100 72 64 16 64 56 10 670 $ 4,400 6,280 6,160 5,500 3,960 3,520 880 4,160 4_ $38,340 800 $39,140 $ 4,200 300 $43,640 ADDITIONAL WORK FEE STRUC URE The fee for any additional work that might be necessary to meet sufficiency requirements that may result from south Florida Regional Planning Council review of the DRI application would be on a per diem basis. The hourly rate structure is $75-$95 for a Vice President; $40-$50 for an Associate; and $25-$35 for support staff. t.� 85-631L `:: A i I 11j++1 _ w - M rk a r-, MEETINGS We propose that three client meetings be held during the study -- one at the outset of the assignment; one following conclusion process of the market analysis; and one at the conclusion of the study process to present the technical report. We would also make up to four t presentations to other agencies and groups as directed by the Client (with these presentations scheduled on one or two consecutive days). KY� y ItISIOIDNII &$lot��t�r _ K ti t 1 i 85-631 TIME SCHEDULE Task Date_Begin bate Completed 1, Market Analysis June 24 August 12 11. Analysis of Land Values August 5 August 19 111. DRI August 21 August 30 IV. Submission of Draft Report August 12 September 6 V. Submission of Final Report September 20 1/ 1/ Assumes all client comments on the draft be received — by September 13. LMAM�1tl,l1►!!o!!!!11# A!lRIflAfi! -- _� 7 L 8 -631 t �tT $-TAFFING George Dengler, a Vice President of HSGA, will be the Project Director with direct responsibility for the study and the technical results. He will direct the support staff, conduct key interviews, assist in report preparation, attend all meetings and presentations, and have responsibility for the report production and content. Mr. Dengler will devote 200 hours to the assignment. Clifton Henry, also a Vice President of HSGA, will have primary responsibility for all work items relating to the DRI preparation. In addition, he will draw from his recent experience in the market to assist the team in formulating market conclusions relating to land use demand. Mr. Henry will spend 80 hours on the project.. Patricia Beach, an Associate, will be one of the two analysts assigned to the project. Ms. Beach will have the responsibility for conducting the market work for the residential, hotel, wholesale/ industrial uses, and the employment and population analysis. Ms. Beach will devote 190 hours to the project. Catherine Brown, an Associate, will be the second analyst assigned to the project. Ms. Brown will have the responsibility for conducting the market work for the office, retail, and entertainment land uses and the land value analysis. Ms. Brown will devote 160 hours to the assignment. Clerical and drafting support staff will provide 40 hours of work involved with draft and technical report production. . #40001.91Lt0.09coma as8861ATEf 85-s31